Predicciones y probabilidades de las elecciones intermedias 2026

$6.1K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

70% de probabilidad de no

-10.0%

NUEVO

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

88% de probabilidad de no

-1.5%

NUEVO

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

93% de probabilidad de sí

+0.1%

$3M Vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

70% de probabilidad de no

-9.0%

$6.1K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

70% de probabilidad de no

-10.0%

NUEVO

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

88% de probabilidad de no

-1.5%

Carreras más importantes

mercados más decisivos

$1M Vol

AK Governor

57% Republicano

$505K Vol

TX Senate

50% Demócrata

$519K Vol

ME Senate

65% Demócrata

$338K Vol

AK Senate

62% Demócrata

$122K Vol

IA Senate

59% Republicano

$1M Vol

AK Governor

57% Republicano

$505K Vol

TX Senate

50% Demócrata

$519K Vol

ME Senate

65% Demócrata

California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra

Todas las carreras

519 mercados

Carrera

Estado

Fav

Nivel

Mostrando 25 de 50 mercados

Probabilidades intermedias 2026

Probabilidades de las elecciones intermedias 2026 — Probabilidades en vivo del mercado de predicción
Mercado	Principales contendientes y nominados	Probabilidades en vivo
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	89%
	Steve Hilton	8%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich	30%
	Bernadette Wilson	25%
	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	16%
	Bill Walker	9%
	Treg Taylor	7%
	David Bronson	4%
	Click Bishop	3%
	Shelley Hughes	1%
	Nancy Dahlstrom	1%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrat	67%
	Republican	35%
Texas Senate Election Winner	Ken Paxton (R)	56%
	James Talarico (D)	46%
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner	Micah Lasher	63%
	Alex Bores	37%
	Jack Schlossberg	2%
NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Claire Valdez	79%
	Antonio Reynoso	20%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Republican	59%
	Independent	39%
	Democrat	3%
Iowa Senate Election Winner	Republican	60%
	Democrat	41%
Michigan Senate Election Winner	Democrat	73%
	Republican	28%
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republican	55%
	Democrat	47%
OK-01 Republican Primary Winner	Jackson Lahmeyer	54%
	Mark Tedford	40%
	Dan Rooney	1%
Ohio Senate Election Winner	Sherrod Brown (D)	56%
	Jon Husted (R)	43%
Montana Senate Election Winner	Republican	76%
	Independent	25%
	Democrat	2%
New York Governor Election Winner	Democrat	87%
	Republican	12%
CA-04 Primary Winners	Mike Thompson	100%
	Eric Jones	96%
	Sharon Brown	1%
	Laurie MacKenzie	1%
	Trevor Merrell	1%
UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Ben McAdams	88%
	Nate Blouin	8%
	Liban Mohamed	1%
Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrat	63%
	Republican	38%
LA-05 Republican Primary Winner	Blake Miguez	6%
	Michael Echols	2%
	Austin Magee	2%
	Misti Cordell	1%
	Rick Edmonds	1%
	Michael Mebruer	1%
NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner	Darializa Avila Chevalier	52%
	Adriano Espaillat	42%
Florida Senate Election Winner	Republican	81%
	Democrat	19%
Colorado Senate Election Winner	Democrat	92%
	Republican	8%
MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Matt Little	79%
	Matt Klein	17%
	Kaela Berg	6%
Georgia Senate Election Winner	Democrat	87%
	Republican	14%
MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner	Ilhan Omar	87%
	Latonya Reeves	10%
CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner	Manny Rutinel	59%
	Shannon Bird	35%
	Amie Baca-Oehlert	2%
	Dave Young	1%
Nevada Governor Election Winner	Democrat	51%
	Republican	51%
FL-19 Republican Primary Winner	Catalina Lauf	53%
	Jim Oberweis	23%
	Jim Schwartzel	11%
	Madison Cawthorn	6%
	Bob Rommel	4%
	Spencer Roach	2%
GA-11 Republican Primary Winner	John Cowan	69%
	Rob Adkerson	26%
Florida Governor Election Winner	Republican	78%
	Democrat	23%
MD-06 Democratic Primary Winner	April McClain Delaney	90%
	David Trone	9%
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner	Jeremy Moss	96%
	Andy Levin	3%
	Aisha Farooqi	1%
	Don Ufford	1%
NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner	Brad Lander	98%
	Dan Goldman	2%
Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republican	92%
	Democrat	4%
Arkansas Senate Election Winner	Republican	95%
	Democrat	4%
Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Republican	89%
	Democrat	11%
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Elaine Luria	98%
	James Osyf	1%
	Burk Stringfellow	1%
Alabama Senate Election Winner	Republican	95%
	Democrat	6%
CO-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Diana DeGette	62%
	Melat Kiros	30%
	Carter Hanson	2%
	Santiago Palomino	1%
FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner	Debbie Wasserman Schultz	46%
	Elijah Manley	39%
	Maisha Williams	6%
	Rudy Moise	4%
	Luther Campbell	4%
	Dale Holness	4%
	Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick	2%
South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republican	93%
	Democrat	7%
CA-14 Primary Winners	Aisha Wahab	100%
	Melissa Hernandez	57%
	Suzanne Chenault	2%
	Wendy Huang	2%
	Matt Ortega	2%
NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner	Grace Meng	88%
	Charles Park	19%
	Yan Xiong	1%
Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republican	89%
	Democrat	12%
MD-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Kweisi Mfume	99%
	Theo Gillespie	1%
CA-16 Primary Winners	Sam Liccardo	99%
	Peter Sundin Soulé	59%
	Jotham Stein	16%
	Kevin Johnson	14%
MD-03 Democratic Primary Winner	Sarah Elfreth	94%
	Sean Hammond	6%
	Robert Morrison	5%
	Austin Dyches	4%
	Jennifer Cross	1%
Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?	Lateefah Simon	100%
MD-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Dan Schwartz	94%
	George Walsh	5%
	Randi White	4%
	Victor Guidice	2%
UT-03 Republican Primary Winner	Celeste Maloy	93%
	Phil Lyman	10%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	31%

89%

Steve Hilton

Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich

30%

Bernadette Wilson

25%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Maine Senate Election Winner Democrat

67%

Texas Senate Election Winner Ken Paxton (R)

35%

56%

James Talarico (D)

46%

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner Micah Lasher

NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner Claire Valdez

79%

Antonio Reynoso

20%

Nebraska Senate Election Winner Republican

Iowa Senate Election Winner Republican

60%

Michigan Senate Election Winner Democrat

41%

73%

Ohio Governor Election Winner Republican

28%

55%

OK-01 Republican Primary Winner Jackson Lahmeyer

47%

Ohio Senate Election Winner Sherrod Brown (D)

56%

Jon Husted (R)

43%

Montana Senate Election Winner Republican

New York Governor Election Winner Democrat

87%

CA-04 Primary Winners Mike Thompson

12%

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner Ben McAdams

88%

Nate Blouin

Liban Mohamed

Iowa Governor Election Winner Democrat

63%

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner Blake Miguez

38%

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner Darializa Avila Chevalier

52%

Adriano Espaillat

42%

Florida Senate Election Winner Republican

81%

Colorado Senate Election Winner Democrat

19%

92%

MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner Matt Little

Georgia Senate Election Winner Democrat

87%

MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner Ilhan Omar

14%

87%

Latonya Reeves

10%

CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner Manny Rutinel

Nevada Governor Election Winner Democrat

51%

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner Catalina Lauf

51%

GA-11 Republican Primary Winner John Cowan

69%

Rob Adkerson

26%

Florida Governor Election Winner Republican

78%

MD-06 Democratic Primary Winner April McClain Delaney

23%

90%

David Trone

MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner Jeremy Moss

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner Brad Lander

98%

Dan Goldman

Oklahoma Senate Election Winner Republican

92%

Arkansas Senate Election Winner Republican

95%

Louisiana Senate Election Winner Republican

89%

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner Elaine Luria

11%

98%

James Osyf

Burk Stringfellow

Alabama Senate Election Winner Republican

95%

CO-01 Democratic Primary Winner Diana DeGette

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick

South Dakota Senate Election Winner Republican

93%

CA-14 Primary Winners Aisha Wahab

NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner Grace Meng

Alabama Governor Election Winner Republican

89%