Predicciones y probabilidades de las elecciones intermedias 2026

$6.1K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

69% de probabilidad de no

-13.0%

NUEVO

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

86% de probabilidad de no

+2.5%

NUEVO

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

93% de probabilidad de sí

+0.0%

$3M Vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

67% de probabilidad de no

-5.5%

$6.1K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

69% de probabilidad de no

-13.0%

NUEVO

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

86% de probabilidad de no

+2.5%

Carreras más importantes

mercados más decisivos

$1M Vol

AK Governor

57% Republicano

$504K Vol

TX Senate

50% Demócrata

$519K Vol

ME Senate

65% Demócrata

$338K Vol

AK Senate

62% Demócrata

$122K Vol

IA Senate

59% Republicano

$1M Vol

AK Governor

57% Republicano

$504K Vol

TX Senate

50% Demócrata

$519K Vol

ME Senate

65% Demócrata

California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra

Todas las carreras

519 mercados

Carrera

Estado

Fav

Nivel

Mostrando 25 de 50 mercados

Probabilidades intermedias 2026

Probabilidades de las elecciones intermedias 2026 — Probabilidades en vivo del mercado de predicción
Mercado	Principales contendientes y nominados	Probabilidades en vivo
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	89%
	Steve Hilton	8%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich	30%
	Bernadette Wilson	25%
	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	16%
	Treg Taylor	7%
	Bill Walker	7%
	David Bronson	4%
	Click Bishop	3%
	Shelley Hughes	1%
	Matt Claman	1%
	Nancy Dahlstrom	1%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrat	67%
	Republican	35%
Texas Senate Election Winner	Ken Paxton (R)	56%
	James Talarico (D)	46%
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner	Micah Lasher	63%
	Alex Bores	37%
	Jack Schlossberg	2%
Alaska Senate Election Winner	Mary Peltola	63%
	Dan Sullivan	38%
NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Claire Valdez	78%
	Antonio Reynoso	21%
	Julie Won	1%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Republican	59%
	Independent	39%
	Democrat	3%
Iowa Senate Election Winner	Republican	60%
	Democrat	41%
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republican	55%
	Democrat	47%
Ohio Senate Election Winner	Sherrod Brown (D)	56%
	Jon Husted (R)	43%
OK-01 Republican Primary Winner	Jackson Lahmeyer	66%
	Mark Tedford	35%
	Dan Rooney	1%
Montana Senate Election Winner	Republican	76%
	Independent	25%
	Democrat	2%
New York Governor Election Winner	Democrat	87%
	Republican	12%
CA-04 Primary Winners	Mike Thompson	100%
	Eric Jones	91%
	Sharon Brown	1%
	Laurie MacKenzie	1%
	Trevor Merrell	1%
UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Ben McAdams	89%
	Nate Blouin	8%
	Liban Mohamed	1%
LA-05 Republican Primary Winner	Blake Miguez	6%
	Michael Echols	2%
	Austin Magee	2%
	Misti Cordell	1%
	Rick Edmonds	1%
	Michael Mebruer	1%
Florida Senate Election Winner	Republican	81%
	Democrat	19%
Colorado Senate Election Winner	Democrat	92%
	Republican	8%
South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Republican	82%
	Democrat	20%
MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Matt Little	80%
	Matt Klein	17%
	Kaela Berg	6%
Georgia Senate Election Winner	Democrat	87%
	Republican	14%
MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner	Ilhan Omar	90%
	Latonya Reeves	10%
CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner	Manny Rutinel	56%
	Shannon Bird	39%
	Amie Baca-Oehlert	2%
	Dave Young	1%
Nevada Governor Election Winner	Democrat	51%
	Republican	51%
MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner	Adrian Boafo	69%
	Harry Dunn	9%
	Rushern Baker III	6%
	Wala Blegay	4%
	Quincy Bareebe	2%
	Harry Jarin	1%
	Arthur Ellis	1%
	Elldwnia English	1%
	Harold Tolbert	1%
	Nicole Williams	1%
GA-11 Republican Primary Winner	John Cowan	69%
	Rob Adkerson	26%
Florida Governor Election Winner	Republican	77%
	Democrat	22%
MD-06 Democratic Primary Winner	April McClain Delaney	91%
	David Trone	9%
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner	Jeremy Moss	97%
	Don Ufford	8%
	Andy Levin	3%
	Aisha Farooqi	1%
NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner	Brad Lander	98%
	Dan Goldman	2%
	Cameron Kasky	1%
Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republican	91%
	Democrat	8%
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Bridget Brink	82%
	William Lawrence	13%
	Matt Maasdam	7%
	Josh Cowen	1%
	Elyon Badger	1%
	Muhammad Salman Rais	1%
Delaware Senate Election Winner	Democrat	93%
	Republican	6%
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Elaine Luria	98%
	James Osyf	1%
	Matt Strickler	1%
	Burk Stringfellow	1%
CO-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Diana DeGette	62%
	Melat Kiros	28%
	Carter Hanson	1%
	Santiago Palomino	1%
New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Republican	66%
	Democrat	23%
CO-03 Republican Primary Winner	Jeff Hurd	98%
	Hope Scheppelman	1%
FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner	Debbie Wasserman Schultz	44%
	Elijah Manley	40%
	Maisha Williams	5%
	Rudy Moise	4%
	Luther Campbell	4%
	Dale Holness	4%
	Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick	2%
CA-14 Primary Winners	Aisha Wahab	100%
	Melissa Hernandez	87%
	Wendy Huang	2%
	Matt Ortega	2%
	Suzanne Chenault	1%
	Carin Elam	1%
NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner	Grace Meng	89%
	Charles Park	19%
	Yan Xiong	1%
Alabama Governor Election Winner	Republican	89%
	Democrat	12%
MD-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Kweisi Mfume	99%
	Theo Gillespie	1%
OK-04 Democratic Primary Winner	Jeff Pixley	70%
	Mitchell Jacob	32%
CA-16 Primary Winners	Sam Liccardo	99%
	Peter Sundin Soulé	58%
	Kevin Johnson	41%
	Jotham Stein	1%
MD-03 Democratic Primary Winner	Sarah Elfreth	94%
	Austin Dyches	23%
	Robert Morrison	8%
	Sean Hammond	5%
	Jennifer Cross	1%
Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?	Lateefah Simon	100%
	Jamie Joyce	1%
MD-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Dan Schwartz	93%
	George Walsh	5%
	Victor Guidice	2%
	Randi White	2%
UT-03 Republican Primary Winner	Celeste Maloy	94%
	Phil Lyman	8%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	33%

89%

Steve Hilton

Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich

30%

Bernadette Wilson

25%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Maine Senate Election Winner Democrat

67%

Texas Senate Election Winner Ken Paxton (R)

35%

56%

James Talarico (D)

46%

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner Micah Lasher

Alaska Senate Election Winner Mary Peltola

63%

Dan Sullivan

38%

NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner Claire Valdez

Nebraska Senate Election Winner Republican

Iowa Senate Election Winner Republican

60%

Ohio Governor Election Winner Republican

41%

55%

Ohio Senate Election Winner Sherrod Brown (D)

47%

56%

Jon Husted (R)

43%

OK-01 Republican Primary Winner Jackson Lahmeyer

Montana Senate Election Winner Republican

New York Governor Election Winner Democrat

87%

CA-04 Primary Winners Mike Thompson

12%

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner Ben McAdams

89%

Nate Blouin

Liban Mohamed

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner Blake Miguez

Florida Senate Election Winner Republican

81%

Colorado Senate Election Winner Democrat

19%

92%

South Carolina Senate Election Winner Republican

82%

MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner Matt Little

20%

Georgia Senate Election Winner Democrat

87%

MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner Ilhan Omar

14%

90%

Latonya Reeves

10%

CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner Manny Rutinel

Nevada Governor Election Winner Democrat

51%

MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner Adrian Boafo

51%

GA-11 Republican Primary Winner John Cowan

69%

Rob Adkerson

26%

Florida Governor Election Winner Republican

77%

MD-06 Democratic Primary Winner April McClain Delaney

22%

91%

David Trone

MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner Jeremy Moss

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner Brad Lander

98%

Dan Goldman

Cameron Kasky

Oklahoma Governor Election Winner Republican

91%

MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner Bridget Brink

Delaware Senate Election Winner Democrat

93%

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner Elaine Luria

CO-01 Democratic Primary Winner Diana DeGette

New Hampshire Governor Election Winner Republican

66%

CO-03 Republican Primary Winner Jeff Hurd

23%

98%

Hope Scheppelman

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick

CA-14 Primary Winners Aisha Wahab

NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner Grace Meng

Alabama Governor Election Winner Republican

89%