Paloma Valencia publicly supports hydraulic fracturing (fracking) for natural gas to address energy deficits, emphasizing a pro-oil and gas energy policy

Paloma Valencia rises to 44%3%

(This stance appealed to energy sector supporters and conservative voters.)

President Gustavo Petro reveals CIA has intelligence on possible attack plot against Iván Cepeda

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%1%

Security concerns raised by the president about threats to Cepeda underscored the risks faced by the candidate, influencing market perceptions of campaign stability.

The Conservative Party officially endorses Paloma Valencia, unifying the right-wing vote and enhancing her competitiveness in the presidential race

Paloma Valencia rises to 44%3%

(The endorsement was a key coalition-building event.)

De la Espriella declares he will not negotiate with traditional political parties, emphasizing campaign independence and risking fragmentation

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 26%12%

This reaffirmation of political independence polarized voters but energized his core base, causing a partial.

Campaign intensifies security protocols amid ongoing threats; De la Espriella explains use of helicopter and armored measures as necessary for safety

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 26%12%

Transparency about security measures reassured some supporters, stabilizing market sentiment.

Valencia pledges a $14 billion budget deficit cut and a renewed focus on oil production, signaling a fiscally conservative platform aimed at economic stability

Paloma Valencia rises to 41%3%

(Policy announcements helped solidify her economic credentials.)

Polls show Paloma Valencia rising to second place nationally with 22.2% support, overtaking Abelardo de la Espriella, signaling growing momentum in the presidential race

Paloma Valencia drops to 38%5%

(Poll results influenced market confidence in her candidacy.)

Iván Cepeda publicly rebukes media speculation about his health, affirming fitness for presidency

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%2%

Cepeda’s response to health rumors aimed to stabilize his campaign image, slightly tempering market fluctuations.

Paloma Valencia announces economist Juan Daniel Oviedo, former head of Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), as her vice-presidential running mate to broaden her appeal to centrist and younger voters

Paloma Valencia jumps to 43%6%

(The strategic VP pick expanded her coalition and voter base.)

Fajardo announces his vice-presidential running mate, Edna Bonilla, aiming to strengthen his ticket with an experienced public sector figure, but this move fails to significantly

Fajardo announces his vice-presidential running mate, Edna Bonilla, aiming to strengthen his ticket with an experienced public sector figure, but this move fails to significantly improve his standing (no significant market impact)

Iván Cepeda announces Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as his vice-presidential running mate

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 43%3%

The selection of Quilcué, a prominent Indigenous activist, broadened Cepeda’s coalition appeal, positively impacting market sentiment.

Paloma Valencia secures the official nomination of the Democratic Center after defeating Senator María Fernanda Cabal, solidifying her candidacy within the party

Paloma Valencia rises to 37%3%

(This formal nomination reinforced her campaign legitimacy.)

Vicky Dávila loses the March 8 presidential primary, ending her 2026 presidential bid

Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 0%1%

Dávila’s defeat in the “Gran Consulta por Colombia” primary effectively ended her presidential campaign, causing the market

Paloma Valencia wins the right-wing “Gran Consulta” primary with over 3 million votes, surpassing eight other candidates and positioning herself as a major contender against far-right Abelardo de la Espriella

Paloma Valencia surges to 34%25%

(Her landslide primary victory significantly boosted her market

Colombia invalidates millions of signatures backing Vicky Dávila’s candidacy over irregularities

Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 2%2%

The National Civil Registry annulled over 500,000 of Dávila’s signatures due to inconsistencies, reducing her official support and triggering a further

Campaign reports anonymous threat from ELN guerrillas; De la Espriella adopts armored podium and increased security measures

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 33%6%

Security concerns raised fears about campaign stability and candidate safety, negatively affecting market confidence.

AtlasIntel/Semana poll shows De la Espriella leading first-round voting intention with 28.4%, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 38%1%

Poll leadership confirmed his viability but also highlighted a tight race, causing minor.

Iván Cepeda files criminal complaint against ex-President Pastrana over alleged Epstein-Maxwell scandal

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 42%4%

Cepeda’s high-profile legal action against Pastrana over misuse of state resources for Epstein associate’s entertainment raised his visibility and appeal to anti-corruption voters.

Colombia’s National Electoral Council excludes Iván Cepeda from left-wing interparty primary, forcing direct first-round candidacy

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 29%9%

The CNE’s decision to bar Cepeda from the primary created uncertainty about his path, causing a market dip as his campaign strategy shifted.

De la Espriella endorses Luis Guillermo Patiño’s education roadmap, consolidating regional alliances and expanding programmatic depth

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 41%2%

Strengthening policy proposals and regional support helped stabilize his campaign and market perception.

Abelardo de la Espriella signs the Carta de Madrid in Spain, aligning with international right-wing leaders like Santiago Abascal and Javier Milei

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 49%13%

This international alliance boosted his profile and credibility among right-wing voters, reflected in a significant.

Poll shows Vicky Dávila trailing in right-wing primary amid fragmented conservative field

Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 4%4%

Polls indicated Dávila lagging behind other right-wing contenders like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo De la Espriella, reflecting internal right-wing divisions and weakening her market position in January.

Claudia López publicly criticizes US President Trump over threats against Colombian President Gustavo Petro, positioning herself politically but failing to boost presidential chances

Claudia López (IND) dips to 0%2%

López's political statements raise her profile but do not translate into increased market confidence in her presidential bid, with

Paloma Valencia wins the Democratic Center party primary decisively, becoming the first female candidate for the party and consolidating her position as a leading right-wing contender

Paloma Valencia plunges to 6%16%

(This event marks her official candidacy, though initial market reaction was volatile.)

Electoral analysis highlights Iván Cepeda as the left’s consolidating candidate, predicting second-round presence

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 36%2%

Media commentary positioned Cepeda as the main left-wing contender, reinforcing his status and likely contributing to a

In an interview, Fajardo focuses on security and anti-corruption, acknowledging polarization and positioning himself as a moderate alternative, but concerns about his ability to

Sergio Fajardo (DC) drops to 3%7%

In an interview, Fajardo focuses on security and anti-corruption, acknowledging polarization and positioning himself as a moderate alternative, but concerns about his ability to overcome extremes persist (market doubts his ability to gain momentum)

Fajardo announces he will not participate in the March 2026 primaries and will run solo in the first round, rejecting traditional party coalitions and complicating his path to

Sergio Fajardo (DC) dips to 10%4%

Fajardo announces he will not participate in the March 2026 primaries and will run solo in the first round, rejecting traditional party coalitions and complicating his path to build broad support (market reacts negatively to his isolation strategy)

De la Espriella publicly rejects participation in the March 2026 right-wing coalition consultation, citing a mandate from millions of signatures and independence from traditional parties

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 36%3%

His refusal to join the coalition created uncertainty about his electoral strategy, impacting market confidence amid a fragmented right-wing landscape.

Vicky Dávila surpasses 1 million signatures to register presidential candidacy

Vicky Dávila (IND) jumps to 14%6%

Dávila’s campaign momentum increased as she collected over 1 million citizen endorsements, signaling strong grassroots support and causing a temporary

Iván Cepeda praises ICC’s closure of preliminary examination on Colombia, emphasizing ongoing vigilance for justice

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 29%13%

Cepeda welcomed the ICC’s decision as recognition of Colombia’s transitional justice mechanisms, boosting his profile as a human rights advocate and improving market confidence.

Local elections confirm López's political influence as former Bogotá mayor, but polls show her trailing main presidential contenders

Claudia López (IND) drops to 2%9%

Despite her local stature, López's national presidential prospects weaken as polls favor other candidates, leading to a

Sergio Fajardo delivers keynote at IE School of Architecture and Design, emphasizing his urban transformation legacy and centrist platform, aiming to boost his profile and appeal

Sergio Fajardo (DC) jumps to 17%5%

Sergio Fajardo delivers keynote at IE School of Architecture and Design, emphasizing his urban transformation legacy and centrist platform, aiming to boost his profile and appeal to moderate voters (temporary

Slight market rebound to 11% after López wins centrist primary against Leonardo Huerta

Claudia López (IND) rises to 11%3%

López's victory in the "Consulta de las Soluciones" primary consolidates her centrist base, causing a temporary

Abelardo de la Espriella delivers 4.8 million signatures to Registraduría, officially launching presidential candidacy with unprecedented citizen support

Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 25%25%

This massive grassroots mobilization marked a historic political moment, signaling strong initial momentum but also introducing volatility as the campaign entered formal stages.

Claudia López's support troughs at 11% amid rising prominence of other candidates

Claudia López (IND) dips to 8%4%

Market reflects continued erosion of López's standing as other candidates gain momentum, with her support dipping further.

Iván Cepeda and victims denounce US lobbying efforts to undermine Colombian judiciary amid former President Uribe’s legal case

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 39%11%

Cepeda publicly condemned external pressures from US politicians against Colombia’s judiciary during Uribe’s appeal, highlighting political tensions that may have affected his perceived electability.

Sergio Fajardo officially announces his candidacy for the 2026 Colombian presidential election, marking his third consecutive run and positioning himself as a centrist alternative

Sergio Fajardo (DC) plunges to 20%30%

Sergio Fajardo officially announces his candidacy for the 2026 Colombian presidential election, marking his third consecutive run and positioning himself as a centrist alternative (announcement likely triggered initial

Poll shows Claudia López with only 5.3% support in early presidential race, trailing leading candidates like Miguel Uribe Turbay and Vicky Dávila

Claudia López (IND) plunges to 12%38%

A Guaramo-EcoAnalitica poll placed López at 5.3%, far behind frontrunners, signaling weak early support and triggering a sharp market

Colombia’s Attorney General opens investigation into alleged plot against President Petro involving Vicky Dávila

Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 28%22%

The Attorney General’s Office launched an investigation after audio recordings implicated Vicky Dávila in a supposed plot to remove President Petro, which she denied. This controversy likely damaged her credibility and caused a sharp market