Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams holds a commanding 71.5% implied probability as trader consensus frontrunner in Utah's UT-01 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his leading Q1 2026 fundraising totals, early polling advantages among likely primary voters, and name recognition from prior congressional service in a newly redrawn Democratic-leaning district. State Sen. Nate Blouin trails at 25.5% following backlash over unearthed past social media posts mocking Mormons and joking about sexual assault, which surfaced mid-April and disrupted his progressive momentum despite endorsements like Pramila Jayapal's. At the April 25-26 state convention, newcomer Liban Mohamed's surprise delegate endorsement highlighted vote-splitting among McAdams challengers, but traders anticipate a plurality win favoring McAdams' broad appeal in the direct primary vote amid low name ID for others like Brian King and Caroline Gleich. Early voting begins June 10, with no new polls post-convention.