The near-certain trader consensus against Donald Trump leaving the presidency by June 30 stems primarily from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or documented health events that would trigger the 25th Amendment in the brief remaining window. Constitutional removal processes require extended congressional timelines and votes that cannot realistically conclude before the date, while historical patterns show presidents rarely depart office abruptly without prior public indicators. The short timeframe further limits opportunities for sudden developments to unfold. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unforeseen medical emergency or rapid escalation of legal matters prompting voluntary departure, though both remain low-probability events given current institutional stability and lack of reported catalysts.