Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that President Trump will remain in office through June 30, driven by the absence of viable removal pathways despite recent Democratic calls for impeachment over Iran policy escalations and Rep. Jamie Raskin's April 10 request for a presidential cognitive assessment. Prior House efforts, including Rep. Al Green's December 2025 resolution, failed amid bipartisan opposition, underscoring high barriers: House impeachment requires a simple majority, but Senate conviction demands a two-thirds supermajority unlikely with Republican control. No 25th Amendment invocation by Vice President Vance and Cabinet is underway, and Trump continues public engagements, as in his April 23 White House remarks. Realistic shifts would need sudden health crisis, scandal igniting bipartisan action, or voluntary resignation—low-probability events absent fresh catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Trump saldrá como presidente antes del 30 de junio?
¿Trump saldrá como presidente antes del 30 de junio?
Sí
$4,335,113 Vol.
$4,335,113 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$4,335,113 Vol.
$4,335,113 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that President Trump will remain in office through June 30, driven by the absence of viable removal pathways despite recent Democratic calls for impeachment over Iran policy escalations and Rep. Jamie Raskin's April 10 request for a presidential cognitive assessment. Prior House efforts, including Rep. Al Green's December 2025 resolution, failed amid bipartisan opposition, underscoring high barriers: House impeachment requires a simple majority, but Senate conviction demands a two-thirds supermajority unlikely with Republican control. No 25th Amendment invocation by Vice President Vance and Cabinet is underway, and Trump continues public engagements, as in his April 23 White House remarks. Realistic shifts would need sudden health crisis, scandal igniting bipartisan action, or voluntary resignation—low-probability events absent fresh catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
Volumen
$4,335,113Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that President Trump will remain in office through June 30, driven by the absence of viable removal pathways despite recent Democratic calls for impeachment over Iran policy escalations and Rep. Jamie Raskin's April 10 request for a presidential cognitive assessment. Prior House efforts, including Rep. Al Green's December 2025 resolution, failed amid bipartisan opposition, underscoring high barriers: House impeachment requires a simple majority, but Senate conviction demands a two-thirds supermajority unlikely with Republican control. No 25th Amendment invocation by Vice President Vance and Cabinet is underway, and Trump continues public engagements, as in his April 23 White House remarks. Realistic shifts would need sudden health crisis, scandal igniting bipartisan action, or voluntary resignation—low-probability events absent fresh catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$4,335,139Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that President Trump will remain in office through June 30, driven by the absence of viable removal pathways despite recent Democratic calls for impeachment over Iran policy escalations and Rep. Jamie Raskin's April 10 request for a presidential cognitive assessment. Prior House efforts, including Rep. Al Green's December 2025 resolution, failed amid bipartisan opposition, underscoring high barriers: House impeachment requires a simple majority, but Senate conviction demands a two-thirds supermajority unlikely with Republican control. No 25th Amendment invocation by Vice President Vance and Cabinet is underway, and Trump continues public engagements, as in his April 23 White House remarks. Realistic shifts would need sudden health crisis, scandal igniting bipartisan action, or voluntary resignation—low-probability events absent fresh catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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