Micah Lasher leads the NY-12 Democratic primary at 63.5% implied probability ahead of the June 23 vote, reflecting his edge in recent Siena polling among older voters and substantial outside support including $10 million from Michael Bloomberg-linked groups. Alex Bores trails at 36.5% as the main challenger, bolstered by his Assembly record on AI regulation and millions in super PAC spending from tech interests. A June 9 debate highlighted contrasts on outside money, experience, and policy priorities among the five leading candidates, with heavy expenditures making this one of the costliest House primaries. Lower-probability contenders such as Jack Schlossberg and George Conway remain marginal due to limited polling traction and fundraising gaps, while the race's undecided share and last-week dynamics keep both frontrunners' odds sensitive to final voter turnout in the Manhattan-based district.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12
Micah Lasher 64%
Alex Bores 37%
Jack Schlossberg 1.0%
George Conway <1%
$393,776 Vol.
$393,776 Vol.
Micah Lasher
64%
Alex Bores
37%
Jack Schlossberg
1%
George Conway
<1%
Erik Bottcher
<1%
Carolyn Maloney
<1%
Brad Hoylman-Sigal
<1%
Keith Powers
<1%
Gale Brewer
<1%
Brad Lander
<1%
Cameron Kasky
<1%
Lina Khan
<1%
Julie Menin
<1%
Chelsea Clinton
<1%
Liam Elkind
<1%
Scott Stringer
<1%
Liz Krueger
<1%
Andrew Cuomo
<1%
Cynthia Nixon
<1%
Micah Lasher 64%
Alex Bores 37%
Jack Schlossberg 1.0%
George Conway <1%
$393,776 Vol.
$393,776 Vol.
Micah Lasher
64%
Alex Bores
37%
Jack Schlossberg
1%
George Conway
<1%
Erik Bottcher
<1%
Carolyn Maloney
<1%
Brad Hoylman-Sigal
<1%
Keith Powers
<1%
Gale Brewer
<1%
Brad Lander
<1%
Cameron Kasky
<1%
Lina Khan
<1%
Julie Menin
<1%
Chelsea Clinton
<1%
Liam Elkind
<1%
Scott Stringer
<1%
Liz Krueger
<1%
Andrew Cuomo
<1%
Cynthia Nixon
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado abierto: Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Micah Lasher leads the NY-12 Democratic primary at 63.5% implied probability ahead of the June 23 vote, reflecting his edge in recent Siena polling among older voters and substantial outside support including $10 million from Michael Bloomberg-linked groups. Alex Bores trails at 36.5% as the main challenger, bolstered by his Assembly record on AI regulation and millions in super PAC spending from tech interests. A June 9 debate highlighted contrasts on outside money, experience, and policy priorities among the five leading candidates, with heavy expenditures making this one of the costliest House primaries. Lower-probability contenders such as Jack Schlossberg and George Conway remain marginal due to limited polling traction and fundraising gaps, while the race's undecided share and last-week dynamics keep both frontrunners' odds sensitive to final voter turnout in the Manhattan-based district.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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