Andy Burnham leads the Makerfield by-election market at 73.5% as Labour’s selected candidate following Josh Simons’ May 2026 resignation, which was explicitly intended to enable Burnham’s return to Parliament and potential leadership challenge. The Greater Manchester constituency remains a traditional Labour stronghold, and Burnham’s profile as former mayor and cabinet minister underpins trader confidence in his path to victory on 18 June. Robert Kenyon’s 24.5% reflects Reform UK’s local campaign by the recently elected councillor and plumber, who has highlighted cost-of-living and high-street concerns while facing scrutiny over prior online comments. Minor candidates trail due to limited visibility in the short campaign window. The contest tests Labour’s regional support amid Reform’s national polling gains, with no major late shifts reported in the past week.