The 2026 Aberdeen South by-election, triggered by SNP MP Stephen Flynn's resignation after his election to Holyrood, features a contest dominated by the Scottish National Party's structural position in the seat. Richard Thomson, the party's candidate and a former MP for the neighboring Gordon constituency, holds a strong lead in trader pricing due to the SNP's consistent performance in Aberdeen South since 2019 and his selection in late May. Douglas Lumsden, the Scottish Conservative MSP nominee, represents the primary alternative, with the campaign centering on North Sea energy policy and economic issues in the constituency. Minor candidates from Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK trail significantly. The vote on 18 June leaves limited time for late shifts, aligning with the current implied probabilities reflecting historical voting patterns and candidate profiles.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRichard Gordon Thomson 69%
Douglas Lumsden 27%
David Ballantine 1.0%
Nurul Hoque Ali <1%
$10,489 Vol.
$10,489 Vol.
Richard Gordon Thomson
69%
Douglas Lumsden
27%
David Ballantine
1%
Nurul Hoque Ali
1%
Mel Sullivan
1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein
1%
Jo Hart
<1%
Richard Gordon Thomson 69%
Douglas Lumsden 27%
David Ballantine 1.0%
Nurul Hoque Ali <1%
$10,489 Vol.
$10,489 Vol.
Richard Gordon Thomson
69%
Douglas Lumsden
27%
David Ballantine
1%
Nurul Hoque Ali
1%
Mel Sullivan
1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein
1%
Jo Hart
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Aberdeen South by-election, triggered by SNP MP Stephen Flynn's resignation after his election to Holyrood, features a contest dominated by the Scottish National Party's structural position in the seat. Richard Thomson, the party's candidate and a former MP for the neighboring Gordon constituency, holds a strong lead in trader pricing due to the SNP's consistent performance in Aberdeen South since 2019 and his selection in late May. Douglas Lumsden, the Scottish Conservative MSP nominee, represents the primary alternative, with the campaign centering on North Sea energy policy and economic issues in the constituency. Minor candidates from Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK trail significantly. The vote on 18 June leaves limited time for late shifts, aligning with the current implied probabilities reflecting historical voting patterns and candidate profiles.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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