Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, driven by her high name recognition from serving the district 2019–2023, superior fundraising totals exceeding Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans, and early DCCC Red to Blue designation targeting the competitive seat. Recent reporting on a potential Luria-Kiggans rematch has reinforced her frontrunner status amid a fragmented seven-candidate field, where lesser-known challengers like Matt Strickler and Nicolaus Sleister trail far behind due to limited resources and visibility. No major polling exists yet, leaving room for shifts from endorsements, debates, or late entrants before the summer primary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElaine Luria 85%
Matt Strickler 3.9%
Nicolaus Sleister 3.4%
Patrick Mosolf 2.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 jun 2026
Elaine Luria
85%
Matt Strickler
4%
Nicolaus Sleister
3%
Patrick Mosolf
3%
Nila Devanath
3%
James Osyf
2%
Burk Stringfellow
2%
Elaine Luria 85%
Matt Strickler 3.9%
Nicolaus Sleister 3.4%
Patrick Mosolf 2.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 jun 2026
Elaine Luria
$1,312 Vol.
85%
Matt Strickler
$594 Vol.
4%
Nicolaus Sleister
$996 Vol.
3%
Patrick Mosolf
$1,514 Vol.
3%
Nila Devanath
$799 Vol.
3%
James Osyf
$1,112 Vol.
2%
Burk Stringfellow
$616 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, driven by her high name recognition from serving the district 2019–2023, superior fundraising totals exceeding Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans, and early DCCC Red to Blue designation targeting the competitive seat. Recent reporting on a potential Luria-Kiggans rematch has reinforced her frontrunner status amid a fragmented seven-candidate field, where lesser-known challengers like Matt Strickler and Nicolaus Sleister trail far behind due to limited resources and visibility. No major polling exists yet, leaving room for shifts from endorsements, debates, or late entrants before the summer primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado abierto: Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET
Volumen
$6,943Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, driven by her high name recognition from serving the district 2019–2023, superior fundraising totals exceeding Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans, and early DCCC Red to Blue designation targeting the competitive seat. Recent reporting on a potential Luria-Kiggans rematch has reinforced her frontrunner status amid a fragmented seven-candidate field, where lesser-known challengers like Matt Strickler and Nicolaus Sleister trail far behind due to limited resources and visibility. No major polling exists yet, leaving room for shifts from endorsements, debates, or late entrants before the summer primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$6,943Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, driven by her high name recognition from serving the district 2019–2023, superior fundraising totals exceeding Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans, and early DCCC Red to Blue designation targeting the competitive seat. Recent reporting on a potential Luria-Kiggans rematch has reinforced her frontrunner status amid a fragmented seven-candidate field, where lesser-known challengers like Matt Strickler and Nicolaus Sleister trail far behind due to limited resources and visibility. No major polling exists yet, leaving room for shifts from endorsements, debates, or late entrants before the summer primary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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