Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton (R) cruised to an 82% victory in the March 3 Republican primary, facing token opposition and solidifying his path to a third term in deeply red Arkansas, where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1996. Challenger Hallie Shoffner (D), a farmer who won her low-turnout primary with 78%, trails significantly in the sole recent poll (Cotton 58%, Shoffner 36% in February) and fundraising ($9.8 million cash on hand for Cotton vs. $579,000 for Shoffner). Forecasters rate the race Safe Republican, with trader consensus at 90.5% implying minimal upset risk absent a major scandal, health issue for Cotton, or national Democratic wave before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Arkansas
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Arkansas
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Republicano
93%
Demócrata
6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$7,245 Vol.
93%
Demócrata
$2,679 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton (R) cruised to an 82% victory in the March 3 Republican primary, facing token opposition and solidifying his path to a third term in deeply red Arkansas, where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1996. Challenger Hallie Shoffner (D), a farmer who won her low-turnout primary with 78%, trails significantly in the sole recent poll (Cotton 58%, Shoffner 36% in February) and fundraising ($9.8 million cash on hand for Cotton vs. $579,000 for Shoffner). Forecasters rate the race Safe Republican, with trader consensus at 90.5% implying minimal upset risk absent a major scandal, health issue for Cotton, or national Democratic wave before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$9,925Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton (R) cruised to an 82% victory in the March 3 Republican primary, facing token opposition and solidifying his path to a third term in deeply red Arkansas, where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1996. Challenger Hallie Shoffner (D), a farmer who won her low-turnout primary with 78%, trails significantly in the sole recent poll (Cotton 58%, Shoffner 36% in February) and fundraising ($9.8 million cash on hand for Cotton vs. $579,000 for Shoffner). Forecasters rate the race Safe Republican, with trader consensus at 90.5% implying minimal upset risk absent a major scandal, health issue for Cotton, or national Democratic wave before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$9,925Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton (R) cruised to an 82% victory in the March 3 Republican primary, facing token opposition and solidifying his path to a third term in deeply red Arkansas, where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1996. Challenger Hallie Shoffner (D), a farmer who won her low-turnout primary with 78%, trails significantly in the sole recent poll (Cotton 58%, Shoffner 36% in February) and fundraising ($9.8 million cash on hand for Cotton vs. $579,000 for Shoffner). Forecasters rate the race Safe Republican, with trader consensus at 90.5% implying minimal upset risk absent a major scandal, health issue for Cotton, or national Democratic wave before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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