Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability to a Republican victory in Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, driven by the state's deep-red partisan makeup—Republicans have held both seats since 2015, swept statewide offices, and last lost to a Democrat in 2008—coupled with a weak Democratic primary field featuring low-profile candidates Nick Albares, Gary Crockett, and Jamie Davis. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy faces intense closed partisan primary challenges on May 16 from Rep. Julia Letlow (backed by President Trump and Gov. Jeff Landry) and Treasurer John Fleming, with a fresh Emerson poll showing Fleming at 24%, Letlow 21%, Cassidy 19%, and 22% undecided amid attack ads and endorsements. While primary turbulence persists, historical precedents and race ratings as Solid Republican signal the GOP nominee's strong path to November 3 general election win; rare shifts could stem from post-primary scandal, health issues, or unexpected turnout surge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Republicano
91%
Demócrata
8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$3,633 Vol.
91%
Demócrata
$2,561 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability to a Republican victory in Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, driven by the state's deep-red partisan makeup—Republicans have held both seats since 2015, swept statewide offices, and last lost to a Democrat in 2008—coupled with a weak Democratic primary field featuring low-profile candidates Nick Albares, Gary Crockett, and Jamie Davis. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy faces intense closed partisan primary challenges on May 16 from Rep. Julia Letlow (backed by President Trump and Gov. Jeff Landry) and Treasurer John Fleming, with a fresh Emerson poll showing Fleming at 24%, Letlow 21%, Cassidy 19%, and 22% undecided amid attack ads and endorsements. While primary turbulence persists, historical precedents and race ratings as Solid Republican signal the GOP nominee's strong path to November 3 general election win; rare shifts could stem from post-primary scandal, health issues, or unexpected turnout surge.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volumen
$6,194Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability to a Republican victory in Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, driven by the state's deep-red partisan makeup—Republicans have held both seats since 2015, swept statewide offices, and last lost to a Democrat in 2008—coupled with a weak Democratic primary field featuring low-profile candidates Nick Albares, Gary Crockett, and Jamie Davis. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy faces intense closed partisan primary challenges on May 16 from Rep. Julia Letlow (backed by President Trump and Gov. Jeff Landry) and Treasurer John Fleming, with a fresh Emerson poll showing Fleming at 24%, Letlow 21%, Cassidy 19%, and 22% undecided amid attack ads and endorsements. While primary turbulence persists, historical precedents and race ratings as Solid Republican signal the GOP nominee's strong path to November 3 general election win; rare shifts could stem from post-primary scandal, health issues, or unexpected turnout surge.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$6,194Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability to a Republican victory in Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, driven by the state's deep-red partisan makeup—Republicans have held both seats since 2015, swept statewide offices, and last lost to a Democrat in 2008—coupled with a weak Democratic primary field featuring low-profile candidates Nick Albares, Gary Crockett, and Jamie Davis. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy faces intense closed partisan primary challenges on May 16 from Rep. Julia Letlow (backed by President Trump and Gov. Jeff Landry) and Treasurer John Fleming, with a fresh Emerson poll showing Fleming at 24%, Letlow 21%, Cassidy 19%, and 22% undecided amid attack ads and endorsements. While primary turbulence persists, historical precedents and race ratings as Solid Republican signal the GOP nominee's strong path to November 3 general election win; rare shifts could stem from post-primary scandal, health issues, or unexpected turnout surge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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