Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republicans at 60% to retain Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat following Sen. Joni Ernst's decision not to seek a third term, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in Trump's double-digit 2024 win and recent Republican party registration gains of +350 voters. Recent April polls paint a competitive picture ahead of the June 2 primaries, with likely GOP nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson leading or tying Democratic contenders Josh Turek and Zach Wahls by 1-4 points in surveys from Echelon Insights and GBAO, though traders appear to discount Democratic internals amid Iowa's historical base rates favoring Republicans in open races. Key factors include primary outcomes, turnout in rural strongholds, and national midterm dynamics, with no polling average yet available.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Iowa
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Iowa
$110,770 Vol.
$110,770 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
60%
Demócrata
41%
$110,770 Vol.
$110,770 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$49,918 Vol.
60%
Demócrata
$60,853 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republicans at 60% to retain Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat following Sen. Joni Ernst's decision not to seek a third term, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in Trump's double-digit 2024 win and recent Republican party registration gains of +350 voters. Recent April polls paint a competitive picture ahead of the June 2 primaries, with likely GOP nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson leading or tying Democratic contenders Josh Turek and Zach Wahls by 1-4 points in surveys from Echelon Insights and GBAO, though traders appear to discount Democratic internals amid Iowa's historical base rates favoring Republicans in open races. Key factors include primary outcomes, turnout in rural strongholds, and national midterm dynamics, with no polling average yet available.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
Volumen
$110,770Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republicans at 60% to retain Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat following Sen. Joni Ernst's decision not to seek a third term, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in Trump's double-digit 2024 win and recent Republican party registration gains of +350 voters. Recent April polls paint a competitive picture ahead of the June 2 primaries, with likely GOP nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson leading or tying Democratic contenders Josh Turek and Zach Wahls by 1-4 points in surveys from Echelon Insights and GBAO, though traders appear to discount Democratic internals amid Iowa's historical base rates favoring Republicans in open races. Key factors include primary outcomes, turnout in rural strongholds, and national midterm dynamics, with no polling average yet available.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$110,770Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republicans at 60% to retain Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat following Sen. Joni Ernst's decision not to seek a third term, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in Trump's double-digit 2024 win and recent Republican party registration gains of +350 voters. Recent April polls paint a competitive picture ahead of the June 2 primaries, with likely GOP nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson leading or tying Democratic contenders Josh Turek and Zach Wahls by 1-4 points in surveys from Echelon Insights and GBAO, though traders appear to discount Democratic internals amid Iowa's historical base rates favoring Republicans in open races. Key factors include primary outcomes, turnout in rural strongholds, and national midterm dynamics, with no polling average yet available.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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