Recent polling from Survation shows Labour's Andy Burnham leading Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by a narrow margin in the June 18 Makerfield by-election, with all other candidates trailing well behind. This positioning stems from the contest's dynamics as a Labour-Reform duel in a constituency with strong Reform support from the prior general election, compounded by local voter frustration over economic issues and national politics. Kenyon benefits from his status as a resident plumber and army reservist emphasizing constituency roots, while Burnham draws on prior parliamentary ties to the area but faces questions about his mayoral role and campaign motives. Minor candidates such as Rebecca Shepherd of Restore Britain register minimal support in available surveys, limiting their prospects for second place. Trader consensus reflected in current prices aligns with these patterns, treating Kenyon as the primary challenger absent late shifts in turnout or undecided voters.