Trader consensus in the CA-04 top-two primary market heavily favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 88% to advance on June 2, reflecting their dominant Q1 fundraising—Thompson with $3 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand, Jones slightly ahead at $3.2 million—as of March 31 filings. Six Republicans and one independent trail far behind financially, fragmenting the opposition in California's nonpartisan primary system where only the top two proceed. Mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, approved November 2025, narrowed the district's Democratic lean in North Bay wine country from 2024's 67% Thompson win, but ratings hold Solid Democratic. Absent public polls, early voting starts May 4, with GOP consolidation or Democratic turnout lapses as key risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-04 Ganadores de las primarias
CA-04 Ganadores de las primarias
$22,525 Vol.
2 jun 2026
Mike Thompson
95%
Eric Jones
55%
Heath Fulkerson
25%
John Wesley Tyler
10%
Trevor Merrell
10%
Sharon Brown
8%
Mandy Ghusar
6%
Laurie MacKenzie
31%
$22,525 Vol.
Mike Thompson
$6,760 Vol.
95%
Eric Jones
$4,571 Vol.
55%
Heath Fulkerson
$315 Vol.
25%
John Wesley Tyler
$810 Vol.
10%
Trevor Merrell
$6,994 Vol.
10%
Sharon Brown
$1,621 Vol.
8%
Mandy Ghusar
$744 Vol.
6%
Laurie MacKenzie
$710 Vol.
31%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the CA-04 top-two primary market heavily favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 88% to advance on June 2, reflecting their dominant Q1 fundraising—Thompson with $3 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand, Jones slightly ahead at $3.2 million—as of March 31 filings. Six Republicans and one independent trail far behind financially, fragmenting the opposition in California's nonpartisan primary system where only the top two proceed. Mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, approved November 2025, narrowed the district's Democratic lean in North Bay wine country from 2024's 67% Thompson win, but ratings hold Solid Democratic. Absent public polls, early voting starts May 4, with GOP consolidation or Democratic turnout lapses as key risks.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$22,525Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the CA-04 top-two primary market heavily favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 88% to advance on June 2, reflecting their dominant Q1 fundraising—Thompson with $3 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand, Jones slightly ahead at $3.2 million—as of March 31 filings. Six Republicans and one independent trail far behind financially, fragmenting the opposition in California's nonpartisan primary system where only the top two proceed. Mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, approved November 2025, narrowed the district's Democratic lean in North Bay wine country from 2024's 67% Thompson win, but ratings hold Solid Democratic. Absent public polls, early voting starts May 4, with GOP consolidation or Democratic turnout lapses as key risks.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$22,525Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus in the CA-04 top-two primary market heavily favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 88% to advance on June 2, reflecting their dominant Q1 fundraising—Thompson with $3 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand, Jones slightly ahead at $3.2 million—as of March 31 filings. Six Republicans and one independent trail far behind financially, fragmenting the opposition in California's nonpartisan primary system where only the top two proceed. Mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, approved November 2025, narrowed the district's Democratic lean in North Bay wine country from 2024's 67% Thompson win, but ratings hold Solid Democratic. Absent public polls, early voting starts May 4, with GOP consolidation or Democratic turnout lapses as key risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes