Incumbent Republican Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal from the Montana Senate race in early March, followed by his endorsement of Kurt Alme in the June 2 GOP primary, has kept trader consensus heavily favoring a Republican victory at 79.5%, reflecting the state's strong Republican lean after Jon Tester's 2024 defeat and Donald Trump's wide margins. Alme, a former U.S. attorney backed by Trump, Governor Gianforte, and Senator Sheehy, leads GOP fundraising and endorsements amid competition from Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child. Independent Seth Bodnar, ex-University of Montana president with bipartisan support from Tester and Racicot, commands 13.4% via superior fundraising ($1.3 million raised), potentially splitting opposition votes. Democrats, led by underfunded ex-state Rep. Reilly Neill in a crowded primary, trail at 6.1%, hampered by weak statewide turnout history. No post-withdrawal polls exist, but forecasters rate it Likely Republican ahead of the November general.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Montana
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Montana
Republicano 80%
Independiente 13.4%
Demócrata 6.6%
$69,534 Vol.
$69,534 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
80%
Independiente
13%
Demócrata
7%
Republicano 80%
Independiente 13.4%
Demócrata 6.6%
$69,534 Vol.
$69,534 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$37,324 Vol.
80%
Independiente
$346 Vol.
13%
Demócrata
$31,865 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal from the Montana Senate race in early March, followed by his endorsement of Kurt Alme in the June 2 GOP primary, has kept trader consensus heavily favoring a Republican victory at 79.5%, reflecting the state's strong Republican lean after Jon Tester's 2024 defeat and Donald Trump's wide margins. Alme, a former U.S. attorney backed by Trump, Governor Gianforte, and Senator Sheehy, leads GOP fundraising and endorsements amid competition from Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child. Independent Seth Bodnar, ex-University of Montana president with bipartisan support from Tester and Racicot, commands 13.4% via superior fundraising ($1.3 million raised), potentially splitting opposition votes. Democrats, led by underfunded ex-state Rep. Reilly Neill in a crowded primary, trail at 6.1%, hampered by weak statewide turnout history. No post-withdrawal polls exist, but forecasters rate it Likely Republican ahead of the November general.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volumen
$69,534Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal from the Montana Senate race in early March, followed by his endorsement of Kurt Alme in the June 2 GOP primary, has kept trader consensus heavily favoring a Republican victory at 79.5%, reflecting the state's strong Republican lean after Jon Tester's 2024 defeat and Donald Trump's wide margins. Alme, a former U.S. attorney backed by Trump, Governor Gianforte, and Senator Sheehy, leads GOP fundraising and endorsements amid competition from Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child. Independent Seth Bodnar, ex-University of Montana president with bipartisan support from Tester and Racicot, commands 13.4% via superior fundraising ($1.3 million raised), potentially splitting opposition votes. Democrats, led by underfunded ex-state Rep. Reilly Neill in a crowded primary, trail at 6.1%, hampered by weak statewide turnout history. No post-withdrawal polls exist, but forecasters rate it Likely Republican ahead of the November general.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$69,534Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal from the Montana Senate race in early March, followed by his endorsement of Kurt Alme in the June 2 GOP primary, has kept trader consensus heavily favoring a Republican victory at 79.5%, reflecting the state's strong Republican lean after Jon Tester's 2024 defeat and Donald Trump's wide margins. Alme, a former U.S. attorney backed by Trump, Governor Gianforte, and Senator Sheehy, leads GOP fundraising and endorsements amid competition from Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child. Independent Seth Bodnar, ex-University of Montana president with bipartisan support from Tester and Racicot, commands 13.4% via superior fundraising ($1.3 million raised), potentially splitting opposition votes. Democrats, led by underfunded ex-state Rep. Reilly Neill in a crowded primary, trail at 6.1%, hampered by weak statewide turnout history. No post-withdrawal polls exist, but forecasters rate it Likely Republican ahead of the November general.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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