Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar holds a commanding trader consensus at 79% implied probability to win Minnesota's 5th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 11, driven by her strong incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising with over $1.5 million cash on hand as of late March, and history of defeating challengers, including a 56%-43% victory in the 2024 primary. Challenger Latonya Reeves, a local AFSCME union leader, probation officer, and DNC member emphasizing frontline public service, equity in criminal justice, and community bridge-building, commands 22% as traders weigh her grassroots appeal and local roots against Omar's national profile and resources. With the candidate filing deadline looming on June 2, no public polling yet available, and minimal recent catalysts beyond campaign launches, the market reflects Omar's structural edge in this solidly Democratic district.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de la primaria demócrata MN-05
Ganador de la primaria demócrata MN-05
$22,108 Vol.
$22,108 Vol.
11 ago 2026
Ilhan Omar
79%
Latonya Reeves
22%
$22,108 Vol.
$22,108 Vol.
11 ago 2026
Ilhan Omar
$18,504 Vol.
79%
Latonya Reeves
$3,604 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar holds a commanding trader consensus at 79% implied probability to win Minnesota's 5th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 11, driven by her strong incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising with over $1.5 million cash on hand as of late March, and history of defeating challengers, including a 56%-43% victory in the 2024 primary. Challenger Latonya Reeves, a local AFSCME union leader, probation officer, and DNC member emphasizing frontline public service, equity in criminal justice, and community bridge-building, commands 22% as traders weigh her grassroots appeal and local roots against Omar's national profile and resources. With the candidate filing deadline looming on June 2, no public polling yet available, and minimal recent catalysts beyond campaign launches, the market reflects Omar's structural edge in this solidly Democratic district.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado abierto: Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ET
Volumen
$22,108Fecha de finalización
11 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar holds a commanding trader consensus at 79% implied probability to win Minnesota's 5th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 11, driven by her strong incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising with over $1.5 million cash on hand as of late March, and history of defeating challengers, including a 56%-43% victory in the 2024 primary. Challenger Latonya Reeves, a local AFSCME union leader, probation officer, and DNC member emphasizing frontline public service, equity in criminal justice, and community bridge-building, commands 22% as traders weigh her grassroots appeal and local roots against Omar's national profile and resources. With the candidate filing deadline looming on June 2, no public polling yet available, and minimal recent catalysts beyond campaign launches, the market reflects Omar's structural edge in this solidly Democratic district.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$22,108Fecha de finalización
11 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar holds a commanding trader consensus at 79% implied probability to win Minnesota's 5th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 11, driven by her strong incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising with over $1.5 million cash on hand as of late March, and history of defeating challengers, including a 56%-43% victory in the 2024 primary. Challenger Latonya Reeves, a local AFSCME union leader, probation officer, and DNC member emphasizing frontline public service, equity in criminal justice, and community bridge-building, commands 22% as traders weigh her grassroots appeal and local roots against Omar's national profile and resources. With the candidate filing deadline looming on June 2, no public polling yet available, and minimal recent catalysts beyond campaign launches, the market reflects Omar's structural edge in this solidly Democratic district.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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