Incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement has opened Iowa's Senate seat, rated Likely Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+6 partisan lean, fueling trader consensus at 60% for a GOP hold despite a recent Echelon Insights poll (April 21) showing tight hypothetical general election matchups: Democrat Josh Turek at 46% vs. Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45%, and Zach Wahls at 46% vs. Hinson 44%. The poll, amid a competitive Democratic primary where Turek leads Wahls 48%-28% per F3M Research, has narrowed implied probabilities but traders weigh Iowa's strong Republican midterm performance and small-sample polling uncertainty ahead of the June 2 primaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Iowa
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Iowa
$111,189 Vol.
$111,189 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
60%
Demócrata
41%
$111,189 Vol.
$111,189 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$50,111 Vol.
60%
Demócrata
$61,078 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement has opened Iowa's Senate seat, rated Likely Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+6 partisan lean, fueling trader consensus at 60% for a GOP hold despite a recent Echelon Insights poll (April 21) showing tight hypothetical general election matchups: Democrat Josh Turek at 46% vs. Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45%, and Zach Wahls at 46% vs. Hinson 44%. The poll, amid a competitive Democratic primary where Turek leads Wahls 48%-28% per F3M Research, has narrowed implied probabilities but traders weigh Iowa's strong Republican midterm performance and small-sample polling uncertainty ahead of the June 2 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
Volumen
$111,189Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement has opened Iowa's Senate seat, rated Likely Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+6 partisan lean, fueling trader consensus at 60% for a GOP hold despite a recent Echelon Insights poll (April 21) showing tight hypothetical general election matchups: Democrat Josh Turek at 46% vs. Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45%, and Zach Wahls at 46% vs. Hinson 44%. The poll, amid a competitive Democratic primary where Turek leads Wahls 48%-28% per F3M Research, has narrowed implied probabilities but traders weigh Iowa's strong Republican midterm performance and small-sample polling uncertainty ahead of the June 2 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$111,189Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement has opened Iowa's Senate seat, rated Likely Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+6 partisan lean, fueling trader consensus at 60% for a GOP hold despite a recent Echelon Insights poll (April 21) showing tight hypothetical general election matchups: Democrat Josh Turek at 46% vs. Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45%, and Zach Wahls at 46% vs. Hinson 44%. The poll, amid a competitive Democratic primary where Turek leads Wahls 48%-28% per F3M Research, has narrowed implied probabilities but traders weigh Iowa's strong Republican midterm performance and small-sample polling uncertainty ahead of the June 2 primaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes