Skip to main content
icon for Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
Mundo·Australia

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

icon for Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
Mundo·Australia

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

Anthony Albanese 41%

Larissa Waters 40%

Angus Taylor 38%

Robbie Katter 37%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Anthony Albanese 41%

Larissa Waters 40%

Angus Taylor 38%

Robbie Katter 37%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Anthony Albanese

$0 Vol.

41%

Larissa Waters

$46 Vol.

40%

Angus Taylor

$0 Vol.

38%

Robbie Katter

$46 Vol.

37%

Pauline Hanson

$0 Vol.

26%

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Anthony Albanese holds a modest edge in trader pricing for the next federal election due by 2028, reflecting his Labor government’s strong 2025 re-election result and continued majority in the House. Recent polls showing One Nation and Pauline Hanson ahead of both major parties, combined with Coalition leadership changes under Angus Taylor, have kept probabilities tightly clustered around 40-55 percent across multiple names. Key variables include voter reaction to the May 2026 budget and tax measures, migration policy adjustments, and any formal preference arrangements between the Coalition and minor parties ahead of the next contest. Economic conditions, Senate dynamics, and potential by-election or state results could further shift implied probabilities before the next campaign begins.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$91
Fecha de finalización
23 sep 2028
Mercado abierto
Jun 10, 2026, 1:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Anthony Albanese holds a modest edge in trader pricing for the next federal election due by 2028, reflecting his Labor government’s strong 2025 re-election result and continued majority in the House. Recent polls showing One Nation and Pauline Hanson ahead of both major parties, combined with Coalition leadership changes under Angus Taylor, have kept probabilities tightly clustered around 40-55 percent across multiple names. Key variables include voter reaction to the May 2026 budget and tax measures, migration policy adjustments, and any formal preference arrangements between the Coalition and minor parties ahead of the next contest. Economic conditions, Senate dynamics, and potential by-election or state results could further shift implied probabilities before the next campaign begins.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$91
Fecha de finalización
23 sep 2028
Mercado abierto
Jun 10, 2026, 1:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? " es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Anthony Albanese" con 41%, seguido de "Larissa Waters" con 40%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 41¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 41% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? " es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jun 10, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? ", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? " es "Anthony Albanese" con 41%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 41% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Larissa Waters" con 40%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? " definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.