Lara Bird of the Scottish National Party holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for the June 18 by-election, reflecting the party's recent strong performance in the area, including comfortable Holyrood victories in overlapping seats earlier in 2026. The contest was triggered by former SNP MP Stephen Gethins's election to the Scottish Parliament, leaving limited time for opposition parties to mount a serious challenge in this first-past-the-post seat. Other named candidates, including Bill Reid of Reform UK, trail significantly, consistent with lower historical support levels for those parties in the constituency. Five candidates are confirmed following the close of nominations in late May, with campaigning focused on local issues and party mobilization ahead of polling. The implied probability for Bird aligns with the SNP's established position as the dominant force in recent regional voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2026 Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Arbroath y Broughty Ferry
2026 Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Arbroath y Broughty Ferry
Lara Bird 87%
Bill Reid 11.4%
Tanvir Ahmad 2.2%
Jack Cruickshanks 1.5%
Lara Bird
87%
Bill Reid
11%
Tanvir Ahmad
2%
Jack Cruickshanks
2%
Heather Doran
1%
Lara Bird 87%
Bill Reid 11.4%
Tanvir Ahmad 2.2%
Jack Cruickshanks 1.5%
Lara Bird
87%
Bill Reid
11%
Tanvir Ahmad
2%
Jack Cruickshanks
2%
Heather Doran
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Lara Bird of the Scottish National Party holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for the June 18 by-election, reflecting the party's recent strong performance in the area, including comfortable Holyrood victories in overlapping seats earlier in 2026. The contest was triggered by former SNP MP Stephen Gethins's election to the Scottish Parliament, leaving limited time for opposition parties to mount a serious challenge in this first-past-the-post seat. Other named candidates, including Bill Reid of Reform UK, trail significantly, consistent with lower historical support levels for those parties in the constituency. Five candidates are confirmed following the close of nominations in late May, with campaigning focused on local issues and party mobilization ahead of polling. The implied probability for Bird aligns with the SNP's established position as the dominant force in recent regional voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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