Ricardo Ferraço's incumbency as the sitting governor, installed in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande's resignation, anchors trader consensus around his 55.5% odds in the October 2026 first-round contest. Recent Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys show Ferraço leading simulated ballots against frontrunners such as Lorenzo Pazolini, with margins of 6–15 points amid 20–27% undecided voters. Fragmented opposition from candidates including Magno Malta, Helder Salomão, and Paulo Hartung, combined with 60% of respondents indicating potential vote shifts, sustains tight implied probabilities near 50% for several names. High Ferraço approval ratings near 77% provide a buffer, yet coalition realignments and late-campaign developments ahead of the October vote could narrow or widen gaps before market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al gobernador de Espírito Santo
Ganador de las elecciones al gobernador de Espírito Santo
Ricardo Ferraço 56%
Lorenzo Pazolini 29%
Arnaldinho Borgo 9.7%
Euclério Sampaio 7.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 oct 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
56%
Lorenzo Pazolini
29%
Arnaldinho Borgo
10%
Euclério Sampaio
8%
Sergio Vidigal
6%
Ricardo Ferraço 56%
Lorenzo Pazolini 29%
Arnaldinho Borgo 9.7%
Euclério Sampaio 7.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 oct 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
$60 Vol.
56%
Lorenzo Pazolini
$120 Vol.
29%
Arnaldinho Borgo
$141 Vol.
10%
Euclério Sampaio
$150 Vol.
8%
Sergio Vidigal
$37 Vol.
6%
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço's incumbency as the sitting governor, installed in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande's resignation, anchors trader consensus around his 55.5% odds in the October 2026 first-round contest. Recent Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys show Ferraço leading simulated ballots against frontrunners such as Lorenzo Pazolini, with margins of 6–15 points amid 20–27% undecided voters. Fragmented opposition from candidates including Magno Malta, Helder Salomão, and Paulo Hartung, combined with 60% of respondents indicating potential vote shifts, sustains tight implied probabilities near 50% for several names. High Ferraço approval ratings near 77% provide a buffer, yet coalition realignments and late-campaign developments ahead of the October vote could narrow or widen gaps before market resolution.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volumen
$508Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço's incumbency as the sitting governor, installed in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande's resignation, anchors trader consensus around his 55.5% odds in the October 2026 first-round contest. Recent Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys show Ferraço leading simulated ballots against frontrunners such as Lorenzo Pazolini, with margins of 6–15 points amid 20–27% undecided voters. Fragmented opposition from candidates including Magno Malta, Helder Salomão, and Paulo Hartung, combined with 60% of respondents indicating potential vote shifts, sustains tight implied probabilities near 50% for several names. High Ferraço approval ratings near 77% provide a buffer, yet coalition realignments and late-campaign developments ahead of the October vote could narrow or widen gaps before market resolution.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$508Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ricardo Ferraço's incumbency as the sitting governor, installed in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande's resignation, anchors trader consensus around his 55.5% odds in the October 2026 first-round contest. Recent Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys show Ferraço leading simulated ballots against frontrunners such as Lorenzo Pazolini, with margins of 6–15 points amid 20–27% undecided voters. Fragmented opposition from candidates including Magno Malta, Helder Salomão, and Paulo Hartung, combined with 60% of respondents indicating potential vote shifts, sustains tight implied probabilities near 50% for several names. High Ferraço approval ratings near 77% provide a buffer, yet coalition realignments and late-campaign developments ahead of the October vote could narrow or widen gaps before market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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