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Política·June 2 Primaries

Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?

icon for Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?
Política·June 2 Primaries

Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?

$1,303 Vol.

Polymarket

$1,303 Vol.

Lateefah Simon

$1,105 Vol.

100%

Jamie Joyce

$199 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Lateefah Simon holds a near-certain lead in the CA-12 top-two primary market because she secured roughly 81 percent of the vote on June 2 as the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024. The solidly Democratic district (Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+39) and her established fundraising and organizational edge limited any serious challenge from Jamie Joyce, who finished second at 19 percent. Traders priced in these structural advantages plus early returns showing Simon’s commanding margin well before final certification. The only realistic paths to altering the outcome would involve an improbable recount or legal dispute over vote totals, neither of which has materialized in the two weeks since the primary closed.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$1,303
Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
May 25, 2026, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Lateefah Simon holds a near-certain lead in the CA-12 top-two primary market because she secured roughly 81 percent of the vote on June 2 as the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024. The solidly Democratic district (Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+39) and her established fundraising and organizational edge limited any serious challenge from Jamie Joyce, who finished second at 19 percent. Traders priced in these structural advantages plus early returns showing Simon’s commanding margin well before final certification. The only realistic paths to altering the outcome would involve an improbable recount or legal dispute over vote totals, neither of which has materialized in the two weeks since the primary closed.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$1,303
Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
May 25, 2026, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Lateefah Simon" con 100%, seguido de "Jamie Joyce" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el May 25, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?" es "Lateefah Simon" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Jamie Joyce" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.