Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast spread from ECMWF and GFS models, with control runs projecting Warsaw's May 7 maximum temperature near 17-18°C under a transitional upper-air pattern shifting from ridging to troughing, introducing cloudiness and shower risks. Recent 00Z model updates over the past 24 hours lowered earlier warmer outlooks (20°C+), as increased precipitation probabilities from a low-pressure system cap highs, differentiating 18°C+ (26.5%) from 17°C (20.5%) based on cloud cover variability—clearer skies favor warmer, persistent showers cooler. IMGW observations and May climatological averages (~18°C highs) align with this uncertainty; watch 12Z ECMWF refresh and May 6 soundings for refinement ahead of resolution at official Chopin Airport station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 7?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 7?
18°C or higher 74%
16°C 13.5%
17°C 10%
15°C 1.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
14%
17°C
10%
18°C or higher
74%
18°C or higher 74%
16°C 13.5%
17°C 10%
15°C 1.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
8°C or below
$175 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$102 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$55 Vol.
1%
12°C
$55 Vol.
1%
13°C
$60 Vol.
1%
14°C
$74 Vol.
1%
15°C
$78 Vol.
2%
16°C
$483 Vol.
14%
17°C
$34 Vol.
10%
18°C or higher
$141 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast spread from ECMWF and GFS models, with control runs projecting Warsaw's May 7 maximum temperature near 17-18°C under a transitional upper-air pattern shifting from ridging to troughing, introducing cloudiness and shower risks. Recent 00Z model updates over the past 24 hours lowered earlier warmer outlooks (20°C+), as increased precipitation probabilities from a low-pressure system cap highs, differentiating 18°C+ (26.5%) from 17°C (20.5%) based on cloud cover variability—clearer skies favor warmer, persistent showers cooler. IMGW observations and May climatological averages (~18°C highs) align with this uncertainty; watch 12Z ECMWF refresh and May 6 soundings for refinement ahead of resolution at official Chopin Airport station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volumen
$1,321Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast spread from ECMWF and GFS models, with control runs projecting Warsaw's May 7 maximum temperature near 17-18°C under a transitional upper-air pattern shifting from ridging to troughing, introducing cloudiness and shower risks. Recent 00Z model updates over the past 24 hours lowered earlier warmer outlooks (20°C+), as increased precipitation probabilities from a low-pressure system cap highs, differentiating 18°C+ (26.5%) from 17°C (20.5%) based on cloud cover variability—clearer skies favor warmer, persistent showers cooler. IMGW observations and May climatological averages (~18°C highs) align with this uncertainty; watch 12Z ECMWF refresh and May 6 soundings for refinement ahead of resolution at official Chopin Airport station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,321Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast spread from ECMWF and GFS models, with control runs projecting Warsaw's May 7 maximum temperature near 17-18°C under a transitional upper-air pattern shifting from ridging to troughing, introducing cloudiness and shower risks. Recent 00Z model updates over the past 24 hours lowered earlier warmer outlooks (20°C+), as increased precipitation probabilities from a low-pressure system cap highs, differentiating 18°C+ (26.5%) from 17°C (20.5%) based on cloud cover variability—clearer skies favor warmer, persistent showers cooler. IMGW observations and May climatological averages (~18°C highs) align with this uncertainty; watch 12Z ECMWF refresh and May 6 soundings for refinement ahead of resolution at official Chopin Airport station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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