Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 6, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs projecting highs of 24–27°C amid a southerly airflow bringing warmer continental air after recent cooler trends during the May long weekend. AccuWeather forecasts a peak near 27°C under partly cloudy skies with late showers and thunderstorms possible, which could cap intensity via cloud cover and convective inhibition. Official IMGW updates indicate above-average warmth for early May—historically around 19–20°C—but inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists, with new model ensembles due overnight potentially shifting odds as resolution nears at Warsaw Chopin Airport station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 6?
26°C or higher 49%
25°C 27%
24°C 24%
23°C 3.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
24%
25°C
27%
26°C or higher
49%
26°C or higher 49%
25°C 27%
24°C 24%
23°C 3.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
16°C or below
$566 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$174 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$205 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$644 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$523 Vol.
1%
21°C
$783 Vol.
1%
22°C
$592 Vol.
2%
23°C
$602 Vol.
4%
24°C
$1,394 Vol.
24%
25°C
$721 Vol.
27%
26°C or higher
$1,567 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 6, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs projecting highs of 24–27°C amid a southerly airflow bringing warmer continental air after recent cooler trends during the May long weekend. AccuWeather forecasts a peak near 27°C under partly cloudy skies with late showers and thunderstorms possible, which could cap intensity via cloud cover and convective inhibition. Official IMGW updates indicate above-average warmth for early May—historically around 19–20°C—but inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists, with new model ensembles due overnight potentially shifting odds as resolution nears at Warsaw Chopin Airport station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volumen
$7,760Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 6, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs projecting highs of 24–27°C amid a southerly airflow bringing warmer continental air after recent cooler trends during the May long weekend. AccuWeather forecasts a peak near 27°C under partly cloudy skies with late showers and thunderstorms possible, which could cap intensity via cloud cover and convective inhibition. Official IMGW updates indicate above-average warmth for early May—historically around 19–20°C—but inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists, with new model ensembles due overnight potentially shifting odds as resolution nears at Warsaw Chopin Airport station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,760Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 6, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs projecting highs of 24–27°C amid a southerly airflow bringing warmer continental air after recent cooler trends during the May long weekend. AccuWeather forecasts a peak near 27°C under partly cloudy skies with late showers and thunderstorms possible, which could cap intensity via cloud cover and convective inhibition. Official IMGW updates indicate above-average warmth for early May—historically around 19–20°C—but inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists, with new model ensembles due overnight potentially shifting odds as resolution nears at Warsaw Chopin Airport station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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