Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 62-63°F high temperature in San Francisco on May 4, 2026, backed by the official National Weather Service measurement of 63°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground. This outcome aligns with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts showing persistent marine stratus clouds, cool onshore westerly winds at 10-15 mph, and overcast skies that suppressed daytime heating despite typical May solar angles. Historical May averages at KSFO hover around 67°F, but frequent fog layers—driven by cool Pacific waters and coastal upwelling—routinely cap highs in the low 60s, as seen in recent model runs from the previous 48 hours. Revisions to official data from sensor anomalies could theoretically challenge this, though such occurrences are exceedingly rare post-validation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en San Francisco el 4 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en San Francisco el 4 de mayo?
62-63°F 100.0%
64-65°F <1%
66°F o más <1%
$110,145 Vol.
$110,145 Vol.
4 may 2026
62-63°F
100%
64-65°F
<1%
66°F o más
<1%
62-63°F 100.0%
64-65°F <1%
66°F o más <1%
$110,145 Vol.
$110,145 Vol.
4 may 2026
62-63°F
$13,934 Vol.
100%
64-65°F
$39,984 Vol.
<1%
66°F o más
$29,138 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 62-63°F high temperature in San Francisco on May 4, 2026, backed by the official National Weather Service measurement of 63°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground. This outcome aligns with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts showing persistent marine stratus clouds, cool onshore westerly winds at 10-15 mph, and overcast skies that suppressed daytime heating despite typical May solar angles. Historical May averages at KSFO hover around 67°F, but frequent fog layers—driven by cool Pacific waters and coastal upwelling—routinely cap highs in the low 60s, as seen in recent model runs from the previous 48 hours. Revisions to official data from sensor anomalies could theoretically challenge this, though such occurrences are exceedingly rare post-validation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$110,145Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 62-63°F high temperature in San Francisco on May 4, 2026, backed by the official National Weather Service measurement of 63°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground. This outcome aligns with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts showing persistent marine stratus clouds, cool onshore westerly winds at 10-15 mph, and overcast skies that suppressed daytime heating despite typical May solar angles. Historical May averages at KSFO hover around 67°F, but frequent fog layers—driven by cool Pacific waters and coastal upwelling—routinely cap highs in the low 60s, as seen in recent model runs from the previous 48 hours. Revisions to official data from sensor anomalies could theoretically challenge this, though such occurrences are exceedingly rare post-validation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$110,145Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 62-63°F high temperature in San Francisco on May 4, 2026, backed by the official National Weather Service measurement of 63°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground. This outcome aligns with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts showing persistent marine stratus clouds, cool onshore westerly winds at 10-15 mph, and overcast skies that suppressed daytime heating despite typical May solar angles. Historical May averages at KSFO hover around 67°F, but frequent fog layers—driven by cool Pacific waters and coastal upwelling—routinely cap highs in the low 60s, as seen in recent model runs from the previous 48 hours. Revisions to official data from sensor anomalies could theoretically challenge this, though such occurrences are exceedingly rare post-validation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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