Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a highest temperature of 22°C or 23°C each at 32.5% implied probability for Chongqing on May 7, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global models like GFS and ECMWF, which cluster expected highs between 21–25°C amid variable cloud cover and potential light showers. Recent CMA updates and ensemble model runs show a persistent cool air mass over the Yangtze River basin, with southerly winds and mid-level troughs capping daytime heating below seasonal norms of 27–28°C, though slight clearing could push toward 24–25°C. Observations from May 4–5 confirm subdued maxima around 22–23°C under overcast skies. Key differentiators include afternoon insolation rates and any convective showers; watch CMA's daily bulletin and 00Z model refreshes on May 6 for shifts, as 2–3°C variances remain common this close to resolution.