Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's lowest temperature on May 5, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 8–11°C (40–41%) due to divergent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS. Recent rain on May 3 ushered in post-frontal cooling and a cold wave advisory effective after May 4, promoting radiative cooling under anticipated clear skies overnight into May 5, with AccuWeather projecting a 9°C low amid hazy sun. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover persistence, light winds (SW 8 mph), and urban heat island effects, which could push minima 1–2°C higher or lower; KMA's next update at 11 AM KST will refine this ahead of resolution based on Incheon station observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Seúl el 5 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Seúl el 5 de mayo?
10°C 39%
9°C 29%
8°C 11.2%
11°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 may 2026
6°C o menos
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
11%
9°C
29%
10°C
34%
11°C
22%
12°C
4%
13°C
5%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C o más
<1%
10°C 39%
9°C 29%
8°C 11.2%
11°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 may 2026
6°C o menos
$281 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$62 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$27 Vol.
11%
9°C
$73 Vol.
29%
10°C
$31 Vol.
34%
11°C
$18 Vol.
22%
12°C
$28 Vol.
4%
13°C
$0 Vol.
5%
14°C
$177 Vol.
1%
15°C
$344 Vol.
<1%
16°C o más
$2,009 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's lowest temperature on May 5, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 8–11°C (40–41%) due to divergent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS. Recent rain on May 3 ushered in post-frontal cooling and a cold wave advisory effective after May 4, promoting radiative cooling under anticipated clear skies overnight into May 5, with AccuWeather projecting a 9°C low amid hazy sun. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover persistence, light winds (SW 8 mph), and urban heat island effects, which could push minima 1–2°C higher or lower; KMA's next update at 11 AM KST will refine this ahead of resolution based on Incheon station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$3,049Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's lowest temperature on May 5, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 8–11°C (40–41%) due to divergent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS. Recent rain on May 3 ushered in post-frontal cooling and a cold wave advisory effective after May 4, promoting radiative cooling under anticipated clear skies overnight into May 5, with AccuWeather projecting a 9°C low amid hazy sun. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover persistence, light winds (SW 8 mph), and urban heat island effects, which could push minima 1–2°C higher or lower; KMA's next update at 11 AM KST will refine this ahead of resolution based on Incheon station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,049Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul's lowest temperature on May 5, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 8–11°C (40–41%) due to divergent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS. Recent rain on May 3 ushered in post-frontal cooling and a cold wave advisory effective after May 4, promoting radiative cooling under anticipated clear skies overnight into May 5, with AccuWeather projecting a 9°C low amid hazy sun. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover persistence, light winds (SW 8 mph), and urban heat island effects, which could push minima 1–2°C higher or lower; KMA's next update at 11 AM KST will refine this ahead of resolution based on Incheon station observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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