Trader consensus on Polymarket prices sub-18°C outcomes for Tokyo's May 7 high temperature at just 5% each, reflecting strong alignment with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ensemble model forecasts predicting peaks of 22-25°C amid persistent high-pressure ridging and warm southerly flow. Recent mild conditions through early May 2026, including highs near 25°C on May 2-5, have reinforced this positioning, as no cooling fronts or northerly outbreaks appear in current guidance. Historical May 7 norms hover around 23°C, with sub-18°C maxima rare outside anomalous cold snaps. Differentiation among lower bins stems from minor model spreads on cloud cover and timing of diurnal heating, though all remain improbable tails. JMA's daily updates through May 6 could refine exact peak probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 7?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 7?
24°C or higher 52%
23°C 34%
22°C 15%
21°C 4.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
4%
22°C
15%
23°C
34%
24°C or higher
52%
24°C or higher 52%
23°C 34%
22°C 15%
21°C 4.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
14°C or below
$626 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$608 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$589 Vol.
1%
17°C
$485 Vol.
1%
18°C
$171 Vol.
1%
19°C
$72 Vol.
1%
20°C
$473 Vol.
2%
21°C
$387 Vol.
4%
22°C
$135 Vol.
15%
23°C
$136 Vol.
34%
24°C or higher
$231 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices sub-18°C outcomes for Tokyo's May 7 high temperature at just 5% each, reflecting strong alignment with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ensemble model forecasts predicting peaks of 22-25°C amid persistent high-pressure ridging and warm southerly flow. Recent mild conditions through early May 2026, including highs near 25°C on May 2-5, have reinforced this positioning, as no cooling fronts or northerly outbreaks appear in current guidance. Historical May 7 norms hover around 23°C, with sub-18°C maxima rare outside anomalous cold snaps. Differentiation among lower bins stems from minor model spreads on cloud cover and timing of diurnal heating, though all remain improbable tails. JMA's daily updates through May 6 could refine exact peak probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Volumen
$3,779Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices sub-18°C outcomes for Tokyo's May 7 high temperature at just 5% each, reflecting strong alignment with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ensemble model forecasts predicting peaks of 22-25°C amid persistent high-pressure ridging and warm southerly flow. Recent mild conditions through early May 2026, including highs near 25°C on May 2-5, have reinforced this positioning, as no cooling fronts or northerly outbreaks appear in current guidance. Historical May 7 norms hover around 23°C, with sub-18°C maxima rare outside anomalous cold snaps. Differentiation among lower bins stems from minor model spreads on cloud cover and timing of diurnal heating, though all remain improbable tails. JMA's daily updates through May 6 could refine exact peak probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,779Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices sub-18°C outcomes for Tokyo's May 7 high temperature at just 5% each, reflecting strong alignment with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ensemble model forecasts predicting peaks of 22-25°C amid persistent high-pressure ridging and warm southerly flow. Recent mild conditions through early May 2026, including highs near 25°C on May 2-5, have reinforced this positioning, as no cooling fronts or northerly outbreaks appear in current guidance. Historical May 7 norms hover around 23°C, with sub-18°C maxima rare outside anomalous cold snaps. Differentiation among lower bins stems from minor model spreads on cloud cover and timing of diurnal heating, though all remain improbable tails. JMA's daily updates through May 6 could refine exact peak probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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