Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 78-79°F on May 5, closely tracking the latest National Weather Service guidance forecasting highs near 77°F under sunny skies and light southwest winds around 7 mph. This positioning stems from recent model consensus across GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a building upper-level ridge promoting warm air advection and above-normal temperatures—about 9°F warmer than the early May climatological average of 68°F—following cooler conditions on May 3 (observed high 58°F). Urban heat island effects at Central Park could nudge peaks higher into the 78-81°F cluster (combined ~60%), though lingering sea breeze potential or thin high clouds introduces uncertainty. Traders await 00z model runs and morning NWS updates for final refinements ahead of resolution based on official Central Park observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on May 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 5?
78-79°F 35%
80-81°F 25%
76-77°F 22%
82-83°F 8%
NUEVO
$17,690 Vol.
NUEVO
$17,690 Vol.
5 may 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
35%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
1%
78-79°F 35%
80-81°F 25%
76-77°F 22%
82-83°F 8%
NUEVO
$17,690 Vol.
NUEVO
$17,690 Vol.
5 may 2026
71°F or below
$5,115 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$932 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$944 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$529 Vol.
22%
78-79°F
$856 Vol.
35%
80-81°F
$418 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$589 Vol.
8%
84-85°F
$1,084 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$1,406 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$2,485 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$3,623 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 78-79°F on May 5, closely tracking the latest National Weather Service guidance forecasting highs near 77°F under sunny skies and light southwest winds around 7 mph. This positioning stems from recent model consensus across GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a building upper-level ridge promoting warm air advection and above-normal temperatures—about 9°F warmer than the early May climatological average of 68°F—following cooler conditions on May 3 (observed high 58°F). Urban heat island effects at Central Park could nudge peaks higher into the 78-81°F cluster (combined ~60%), though lingering sea breeze potential or thin high clouds introduces uncertainty. Traders await 00z model runs and morning NWS updates for final refinements ahead of resolution based on official Central Park observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$17,690Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 78-79°F on May 5, closely tracking the latest National Weather Service guidance forecasting highs near 77°F under sunny skies and light southwest winds around 7 mph. This positioning stems from recent model consensus across GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a building upper-level ridge promoting warm air advection and above-normal temperatures—about 9°F warmer than the early May climatological average of 68°F—following cooler conditions on May 3 (observed high 58°F). Urban heat island effects at Central Park could nudge peaks higher into the 78-81°F cluster (combined ~60%), though lingering sea breeze potential or thin high clouds introduces uncertainty. Traders await 00z model runs and morning NWS updates for final refinements ahead of resolution based on official Central Park observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$17,690Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 78-79°F on May 5, closely tracking the latest National Weather Service guidance forecasting highs near 77°F under sunny skies and light southwest winds around 7 mph. This positioning stems from recent model consensus across GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a building upper-level ridge promoting warm air advection and above-normal temperatures—about 9°F warmer than the early May climatological average of 68°F—following cooler conditions on May 3 (observed high 58°F). Urban heat island effects at Central Park could nudge peaks higher into the 78-81°F cluster (combined ~60%), though lingering sea breeze potential or thin high clouds introduces uncertainty. Traders await 00z model runs and morning NWS updates for final refinements ahead of resolution based on official Central Park observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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