Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on May 7 reaching around 22°C under clear skies and a strengthening high-pressure ridge, following an unusually cool early May with airport METAR observations showing highs of 10-17°C through May 5 amid northerly flows. Trader consensus reflects this warming trend by pricing 24°C or higher at 41.5% implied probability, accounting for model spread with some runs suggesting enhanced solar heating could push peaks to 24-25°C, while 21-23°C outcomes hover at 20-22% each—slightly above the climatological average of 20°C for early May. Daily 00z/12z updates from forecasting agencies will likely sharpen these odds as surface observations accumulate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 7?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 7?
22°C 27%
23°C 24%
21°C 22%
24°C or higher 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
7%
20°C
9%
21°C
22%
22°C
27%
23°C
24%
24°C or higher
12%
22°C 27%
23°C 24%
21°C 22%
24°C or higher 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
14°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
15°C
$5 Vol.
1%
16°C
$192 Vol.
1%
17°C
$170 Vol.
2%
18°C
$24 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
7%
20°C
$31 Vol.
9%
21°C
$0 Vol.
22%
22°C
$12 Vol.
27%
23°C
$89 Vol.
24%
24°C or higher
$19 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on May 7 reaching around 22°C under clear skies and a strengthening high-pressure ridge, following an unusually cool early May with airport METAR observations showing highs of 10-17°C through May 5 amid northerly flows. Trader consensus reflects this warming trend by pricing 24°C or higher at 41.5% implied probability, accounting for model spread with some runs suggesting enhanced solar heating could push peaks to 24-25°C, while 21-23°C outcomes hover at 20-22% each—slightly above the climatological average of 20°C for early May. Daily 00z/12z updates from forecasting agencies will likely sharpen these odds as surface observations accumulate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 12:38 AM ET
Volumen
$464Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on May 7 reaching around 22°C under clear skies and a strengthening high-pressure ridge, following an unusually cool early May with airport METAR observations showing highs of 10-17°C through May 5 amid northerly flows. Trader consensus reflects this warming trend by pricing 24°C or higher at 41.5% implied probability, accounting for model spread with some runs suggesting enhanced solar heating could push peaks to 24-25°C, while 21-23°C outcomes hover at 20-22% each—slightly above the climatological average of 20°C for early May. Daily 00z/12z updates from forecasting agencies will likely sharpen these odds as surface observations accumulate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$464Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Istanbul's highest temperature on May 7 reaching around 22°C under clear skies and a strengthening high-pressure ridge, following an unusually cool early May with airport METAR observations showing highs of 10-17°C through May 5 amid northerly flows. Trader consensus reflects this warming trend by pricing 24°C or higher at 41.5% implied probability, accounting for model spread with some runs suggesting enhanced solar heating could push peaks to 24-25°C, while 21-23°C outcomes hover at 20-22% each—slightly above the climatological average of 20°C for early May. Daily 00z/12z updates from forecasting agencies will likely sharpen these odds as surface observations accumulate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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