Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 22°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on May 5, mirroring the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) seasonal normal maximum of 22.8°C and latest forecast models indicating mostly cloudy conditions with limited solar insolation for substantial afternoon heating. Observations through midday show peaks near 21°C amid a stable cool air mass and light winds, aligning with historical early-May patterns where overcast skies cap highs below 23°C about 70% of the time. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects low uncertainty, as remaining daylight offers scant opportunity for 1°C+ surges. Realistic challenges include sudden clearing boosting shortwave radiation or urban heat island amplification at JMA's Tokyo station, potentially nudging readings to 23°C—though such shifts are rare without stronger ridging aloft. Final resolution awaits JMA's evening data release.