Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on May 7, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means centering around 21-22°C amid mild high-pressure ridging over Iberia. Leading implied probabilities for 21°C (31.5%), 22°C (27%), and 23°C (25.5%) stem from consistent model outputs showing light southerly winds and partial cloud cover limiting peaks, against a May climatological average high of about 21°C at Barajas Airport, AEMET's official station. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and insolation, with 20°C viable under increased cloudiness. New 12z model runs and AEMET updates today could refine guidance as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 7?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 7?
22°C 35%
21°C 32%
23°C 19%
24°C 8.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
6%
21°C
32%
22°C
35%
23°C
19%
24°C
8%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
1%
22°C 35%
21°C 32%
23°C 19%
24°C 8.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
17°C or below
$97 Vol.
1%
18°C
$75 Vol.
1%
19°C
$31 Vol.
2%
20°C
$362 Vol.
6%
21°C
$17 Vol.
32%
22°C
$14 Vol.
35%
23°C
$14 Vol.
19%
24°C
$0 Vol.
8%
25°C
$33 Vol.
3%
26°C
$10 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on May 7, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means centering around 21-22°C amid mild high-pressure ridging over Iberia. Leading implied probabilities for 21°C (31.5%), 22°C (27%), and 23°C (25.5%) stem from consistent model outputs showing light southerly winds and partial cloud cover limiting peaks, against a May climatological average high of about 21°C at Barajas Airport, AEMET's official station. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and insolation, with 20°C viable under increased cloudiness. New 12z model runs and AEMET updates today could refine guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Volumen
$664Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on May 7, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means centering around 21-22°C amid mild high-pressure ridging over Iberia. Leading implied probabilities for 21°C (31.5%), 22°C (27%), and 23°C (25.5%) stem from consistent model outputs showing light southerly winds and partial cloud cover limiting peaks, against a May climatological average high of about 21°C at Barajas Airport, AEMET's official station. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and insolation, with 20°C viable under increased cloudiness. New 12z model runs and AEMET updates today could refine guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$664Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on May 7, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means centering around 21-22°C amid mild high-pressure ridging over Iberia. Leading implied probabilities for 21°C (31.5%), 22°C (27%), and 23°C (25.5%) stem from consistent model outputs showing light southerly winds and partial cloud cover limiting peaks, against a May climatological average high of about 21°C at Barajas Airport, AEMET's official station. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and insolation, with 20°C viable under increased cloudiness. New 12z model runs and AEMET updates today could refine guidance as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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