Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in London's highest temperature on May 7, with 15°C, 17°C, and 16°C each around 22% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office forecast indicating a 16°C maximum amid sunny intervals and 30-40% shower risk from a cooling midweek trend. Ensemble models from ECMWF, GFS, and UKMO show spread due to variable cloud cover and the timing of northerly air advection displacing earlier mild high-pressure influence, potentially capping peaks at 15°C with heavier showers or allowing 17°C under clearer skies. Light winds limit mixing, amplifying small differences in insolation. Updated forecasts twice daily from the Met Office could sharpen odds before resolution at official Heathrow observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in London on May 7?
Highest temperature in London on May 7?
16°C 35%
15°C 24%
17°C 22%
18°C 9.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
8%
15°C
24%
16°C
35%
17°C
22%
18°C
9%
19°C
4%
20°C or higher
3%
16°C 35%
15°C 24%
17°C 22%
18°C 9.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
10°C or below
$1,544 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$263 Vol.
1%
12°C
$353 Vol.
1%
13°C
$304 Vol.
2%
14°C
$64 Vol.
8%
15°C
$95 Vol.
24%
16°C
$142 Vol.
35%
17°C
$196 Vol.
22%
18°C
$61 Vol.
9%
19°C
$67 Vol.
4%
20°C or higher
$262 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in London's highest temperature on May 7, with 15°C, 17°C, and 16°C each around 22% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office forecast indicating a 16°C maximum amid sunny intervals and 30-40% shower risk from a cooling midweek trend. Ensemble models from ECMWF, GFS, and UKMO show spread due to variable cloud cover and the timing of northerly air advection displacing earlier mild high-pressure influence, potentially capping peaks at 15°C with heavier showers or allowing 17°C under clearer skies. Light winds limit mixing, amplifying small differences in insolation. Updated forecasts twice daily from the Met Office could sharpen odds before resolution at official Heathrow observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 1:01 AM ET
Volumen
$3,335Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 1:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in London's highest temperature on May 7, with 15°C, 17°C, and 16°C each around 22% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office forecast indicating a 16°C maximum amid sunny intervals and 30-40% shower risk from a cooling midweek trend. Ensemble models from ECMWF, GFS, and UKMO show spread due to variable cloud cover and the timing of northerly air advection displacing earlier mild high-pressure influence, potentially capping peaks at 15°C with heavier showers or allowing 17°C under clearer skies. Light winds limit mixing, amplifying small differences in insolation. Updated forecasts twice daily from the Met Office could sharpen odds before resolution at official Heathrow observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,335Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 1:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in London's highest temperature on May 7, with 15°C, 17°C, and 16°C each around 22% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office forecast indicating a 16°C maximum amid sunny intervals and 30-40% shower risk from a cooling midweek trend. Ensemble models from ECMWF, GFS, and UKMO show spread due to variable cloud cover and the timing of northerly air advection displacing earlier mild high-pressure influence, potentially capping peaks at 15°C with heavier showers or allowing 17°C under clearer skies. Light winds limit mixing, amplifying small differences in insolation. Updated forecasts twice daily from the Met Office could sharpen odds before resolution at official Heathrow observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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