Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Beijing's May 7 high temperature, with 24°C (27.5% implied probability), 25°C (26.5%), 23°C (22%), and 26°C (19.5%) leading amid a model spread of 23–26°C. Recent China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and World Meteorological Centre Beijing guidance forecasts a 24°C maximum, driven by a cooling trend from a northerly wind shift replacing warm southwest flows—May 5 hit 29°C under sunny skies, dropping to 26°C cloudy on May 6. Differentiating factors include ensemble discrepancies in GFS, ECMWF, and CMA-MESO models over cloud timing, wind speeds, and boundary layer mixing, against May climatological averages near 26–27°C. New 12Z model runs and CMA updates expected within 24 hours could sharpen odds before resolution via official Beijing observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 7?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 7?
23°C 32%
24°C 23%
25°C 21%
26°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
5%
23°C
24%
24°C
23%
25°C
21%
26°C
11%
27°C
5%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
23°C 32%
24°C 23%
25°C 21%
26°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
20°C or below
$35 Vol.
1%
21°C
$20 Vol.
1%
22°C
$113 Vol.
5%
23°C
$57 Vol.
24%
24°C
$76 Vol.
23%
25°C
$0 Vol.
21%
26°C
$5 Vol.
11%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C
$22 Vol.
2%
29°C
$60 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$105 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Beijing's May 7 high temperature, with 24°C (27.5% implied probability), 25°C (26.5%), 23°C (22%), and 26°C (19.5%) leading amid a model spread of 23–26°C. Recent China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and World Meteorological Centre Beijing guidance forecasts a 24°C maximum, driven by a cooling trend from a northerly wind shift replacing warm southwest flows—May 5 hit 29°C under sunny skies, dropping to 26°C cloudy on May 6. Differentiating factors include ensemble discrepancies in GFS, ECMWF, and CMA-MESO models over cloud timing, wind speeds, and boundary layer mixing, against May climatological averages near 26–27°C. New 12Z model runs and CMA updates expected within 24 hours could sharpen odds before resolution via official Beijing observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Volumen
$462Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Beijing's May 7 high temperature, with 24°C (27.5% implied probability), 25°C (26.5%), 23°C (22%), and 26°C (19.5%) leading amid a model spread of 23–26°C. Recent China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and World Meteorological Centre Beijing guidance forecasts a 24°C maximum, driven by a cooling trend from a northerly wind shift replacing warm southwest flows—May 5 hit 29°C under sunny skies, dropping to 26°C cloudy on May 6. Differentiating factors include ensemble discrepancies in GFS, ECMWF, and CMA-MESO models over cloud timing, wind speeds, and boundary layer mixing, against May climatological averages near 26–27°C. New 12Z model runs and CMA updates expected within 24 hours could sharpen odds before resolution via official Beijing observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$462Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Beijing's May 7 high temperature, with 24°C (27.5% implied probability), 25°C (26.5%), 23°C (22%), and 26°C (19.5%) leading amid a model spread of 23–26°C. Recent China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and World Meteorological Centre Beijing guidance forecasts a 24°C maximum, driven by a cooling trend from a northerly wind shift replacing warm southwest flows—May 5 hit 29°C under sunny skies, dropping to 26°C cloudy on May 6. Differentiating factors include ensemble discrepancies in GFS, ECMWF, and CMA-MESO models over cloud timing, wind speeds, and boundary layer mixing, against May climatological averages near 26–27°C. New 12Z model runs and CMA updates expected within 24 hours could sharpen odds before resolution via official Beijing observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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