Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.5% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 5, closely trailed by 27°C at 32.5%, reflecting convergence in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing peaks near 27–28°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport under persistent southerly flow and high pressure. IMGW's weekly outlook confirms 26–27°C maxima in central Poland today, bolstered by clear skies maximizing solar insolation amid above-average early May warmth—well beyond the 19°C climatological norm. AccuWeather aligns with a 27°C high (81°F), but model runs indicate potential for slight intensification. Uncertainty persists in boundary layer effects and afternoon cloud development; monitor IMGW hourly updates and airport observations for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 5?
28°C 56%
27°C 33%
29°C 14%
26°C 1.5%
$40,534 Vol.
$40,534 Vol.
5 may 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
33%
28°C
56%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
1%
28°C 56%
27°C 33%
29°C 14%
26°C 1.5%
$40,534 Vol.
$40,534 Vol.
5 may 2026
20°C or below
$1,859 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,504 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,838 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,398 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,571 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,535 Vol.
1%
26°C
$6,554 Vol.
2%
27°C
$6,283 Vol.
33%
28°C
$3,181 Vol.
56%
29°C
$4,466 Vol.
14%
30°C or higher
$6,408 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.5% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 5, closely trailed by 27°C at 32.5%, reflecting convergence in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing peaks near 27–28°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport under persistent southerly flow and high pressure. IMGW's weekly outlook confirms 26–27°C maxima in central Poland today, bolstered by clear skies maximizing solar insolation amid above-average early May warmth—well beyond the 19°C climatological norm. AccuWeather aligns with a 27°C high (81°F), but model runs indicate potential for slight intensification. Uncertainty persists in boundary layer effects and afternoon cloud development; monitor IMGW hourly updates and airport observations for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volumen
$40,534Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.5% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 5, closely trailed by 27°C at 32.5%, reflecting convergence in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing peaks near 27–28°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport under persistent southerly flow and high pressure. IMGW's weekly outlook confirms 26–27°C maxima in central Poland today, bolstered by clear skies maximizing solar insolation amid above-average early May warmth—well beyond the 19°C climatological norm. AccuWeather aligns with a 27°C high (81°F), but model runs indicate potential for slight intensification. Uncertainty persists in boundary layer effects and afternoon cloud development; monitor IMGW hourly updates and airport observations for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$40,534Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.5% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 5, closely trailed by 27°C at 32.5%, reflecting convergence in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing peaks near 27–28°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport under persistent southerly flow and high pressure. IMGW's weekly outlook confirms 26–27°C maxima in central Poland today, bolstered by clear skies maximizing solar insolation amid above-average early May warmth—well beyond the 19°C climatological norm. AccuWeather aligns with a 27°C high (81°F), but model runs indicate potential for slight intensification. Uncertainty persists in boundary layer effects and afternoon cloud development; monitor IMGW hourly updates and airport observations for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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