Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.2% implied probability to a highest temperature of 22°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on May 5, driven by official METAR observations showing morning readings clustered around 22°C (72°F) under persistent broken clouds, mostly cloudy skies, and light rain, which suppress diurnal heating. Short-range forecast models from sources like ECMWF and local China Meteorological Administration guidance reinforce this, projecting subdued warming amid a recent pattern of cool, overcast conditions following higher temperatures on May 4 (26°C max). Historical May averages near 29°C provide context for the anomaly, attributable to regional frontal activity. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-afternoon clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge peaks toward 23°C, with final airport data resolving the market by midnight local time.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Shenzhen el 5 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Shenzhen el 5 de mayo?
22°C 94.8%
23°C 3.5%
24°C <1%
26°C <1%
$54,281 Vol.
$54,281 Vol.
5 may 2026
22°C
95%
23°C
3%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C o más
<1%
22°C 94.8%
23°C 3.5%
24°C <1%
26°C <1%
$54,281 Vol.
$54,281 Vol.
5 may 2026
22°C
$11,319 Vol.
95%
23°C
$6,024 Vol.
3%
24°C
$5,398 Vol.
1%
25°C
$4,040 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,831 Vol.
1%
27°C
$5,807 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$10,145 Vol.
<1%
29°C o más
$5,582 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.2% implied probability to a highest temperature of 22°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on May 5, driven by official METAR observations showing morning readings clustered around 22°C (72°F) under persistent broken clouds, mostly cloudy skies, and light rain, which suppress diurnal heating. Short-range forecast models from sources like ECMWF and local China Meteorological Administration guidance reinforce this, projecting subdued warming amid a recent pattern of cool, overcast conditions following higher temperatures on May 4 (26°C max). Historical May averages near 29°C provide context for the anomaly, attributable to regional frontal activity. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-afternoon clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge peaks toward 23°C, with final airport data resolving the market by midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$54,281Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.2% implied probability to a highest temperature of 22°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on May 5, driven by official METAR observations showing morning readings clustered around 22°C (72°F) under persistent broken clouds, mostly cloudy skies, and light rain, which suppress diurnal heating. Short-range forecast models from sources like ECMWF and local China Meteorological Administration guidance reinforce this, projecting subdued warming amid a recent pattern of cool, overcast conditions following higher temperatures on May 4 (26°C max). Historical May averages near 29°C provide context for the anomaly, attributable to regional frontal activity. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-afternoon clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge peaks toward 23°C, with final airport data resolving the market by midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$54,281Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.2% implied probability to a highest temperature of 22°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on May 5, driven by official METAR observations showing morning readings clustered around 22°C (72°F) under persistent broken clouds, mostly cloudy skies, and light rain, which suppress diurnal heating. Short-range forecast models from sources like ECMWF and local China Meteorological Administration guidance reinforce this, projecting subdued warming amid a recent pattern of cool, overcast conditions following higher temperatures on May 4 (26°C max). Historical May averages near 29°C provide context for the anomaly, attributable to regional frontal activity. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-afternoon clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge peaks toward 23°C, with final airport data resolving the market by midnight local time.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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