Latest forecast guidance from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and international models like GFS indicates a consensus high of 28–30°C for São Paulo on May 7, reflecting trader-implied probabilities clustered tightly around these outcomes at 19–23%. This positioning stems from the recent dissipation of a cold front that brought showers and cooler conditions through May 4, now yielding to a subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting above-climatological temperatures—early May averages ~23°C—for clearer skies and stronger daytime heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on sea breeze penetration, which could temper peaks via coastal moisture influx and afternoon clouds, versus drier interior advection pushing toward 31°C; new INMET updates expected daily may refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution via official airport station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 7?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 7?
29°C 38%
30°C 24%
28°C 21%
27°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
14%
28°C
21%
29°C
38%
30°C
24%
31°C
9%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 38%
30°C 24%
28°C 21%
27°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
23°C or below
$7 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$12 Vol.
1%
25°C
$14 Vol.
1%
26°C
$17 Vol.
1%
27°C
$54 Vol.
14%
28°C
$14 Vol.
21%
29°C
$43 Vol.
38%
30°C
$24 Vol.
24%
31°C
$7 Vol.
9%
32°C
$42 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$1,036 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast guidance from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and international models like GFS indicates a consensus high of 28–30°C for São Paulo on May 7, reflecting trader-implied probabilities clustered tightly around these outcomes at 19–23%. This positioning stems from the recent dissipation of a cold front that brought showers and cooler conditions through May 4, now yielding to a subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting above-climatological temperatures—early May averages ~23°C—for clearer skies and stronger daytime heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on sea breeze penetration, which could temper peaks via coastal moisture influx and afternoon clouds, versus drier interior advection pushing toward 31°C; new INMET updates expected daily may refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution via official airport station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$1,267Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast guidance from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and international models like GFS indicates a consensus high of 28–30°C for São Paulo on May 7, reflecting trader-implied probabilities clustered tightly around these outcomes at 19–23%. This positioning stems from the recent dissipation of a cold front that brought showers and cooler conditions through May 4, now yielding to a subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting above-climatological temperatures—early May averages ~23°C—for clearer skies and stronger daytime heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on sea breeze penetration, which could temper peaks via coastal moisture influx and afternoon clouds, versus drier interior advection pushing toward 31°C; new INMET updates expected daily may refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution via official airport station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,267Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast guidance from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and international models like GFS indicates a consensus high of 28–30°C for São Paulo on May 7, reflecting trader-implied probabilities clustered tightly around these outcomes at 19–23%. This positioning stems from the recent dissipation of a cold front that brought showers and cooler conditions through May 4, now yielding to a subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting above-climatological temperatures—early May averages ~23°C—for clearer skies and stronger daytime heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on sea breeze penetration, which could temper peaks via coastal moisture influx and afternoon clouds, versus drier interior advection pushing toward 31°C; new INMET updates expected daily may refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution via official airport station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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