Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Moscow's highest temperature on May 7, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C (collectively ~90%) and a notable 25% for 20°C or below, driven by a sharp recent swing: actual highs hit 25°C on May 5 before dropping to 18°C on May 6 amid a passing frontal system introducing cooler northerly winds. Current forecasts from Russian meteorological services like World-Weather.ru project around 17°C under partly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, but diverge from warmer ensemble guidance (e.g., ~25°C in some extended outlooks), highlighting model disagreements on high-pressure persistence versus polar air advection. Daily GFS and ECMWF updates through May 6–7 will clarify steering patterns and cloud cover impacts, key differentiators in this volatile early-May climatology where averages hover near 18–19°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 7?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 7?
25°C 33%
26°C 23%
27°C 18%
24°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
10%
24°C
16%
25°C
33%
26°C
23%
27°C
18%
28°C
5%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 33%
26°C 23%
27°C 18%
24°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
20°C or below
$550 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$375 Vol.
2%
22°C
$65 Vol.
5%
23°C
$84 Vol.
10%
24°C
$116 Vol.
16%
25°C
$25 Vol.
33%
26°C
$25 Vol.
23%
27°C
$91 Vol.
18%
28°C
$35 Vol.
5%
29°C
$35 Vol.
4%
30°C or higher
$4,291 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Moscow's highest temperature on May 7, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C (collectively ~90%) and a notable 25% for 20°C or below, driven by a sharp recent swing: actual highs hit 25°C on May 5 before dropping to 18°C on May 6 amid a passing frontal system introducing cooler northerly winds. Current forecasts from Russian meteorological services like World-Weather.ru project around 17°C under partly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, but diverge from warmer ensemble guidance (e.g., ~25°C in some extended outlooks), highlighting model disagreements on high-pressure persistence versus polar air advection. Daily GFS and ECMWF updates through May 6–7 will clarify steering patterns and cloud cover impacts, key differentiators in this volatile early-May climatology where averages hover near 18–19°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volumen
$5,693Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Moscow's highest temperature on May 7, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C (collectively ~90%) and a notable 25% for 20°C or below, driven by a sharp recent swing: actual highs hit 25°C on May 5 before dropping to 18°C on May 6 amid a passing frontal system introducing cooler northerly winds. Current forecasts from Russian meteorological services like World-Weather.ru project around 17°C under partly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, but diverge from warmer ensemble guidance (e.g., ~25°C in some extended outlooks), highlighting model disagreements on high-pressure persistence versus polar air advection. Daily GFS and ECMWF updates through May 6–7 will clarify steering patterns and cloud cover impacts, key differentiators in this volatile early-May climatology where averages hover near 18–19°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$5,693Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Moscow's highest temperature on May 7, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C (collectively ~90%) and a notable 25% for 20°C or below, driven by a sharp recent swing: actual highs hit 25°C on May 5 before dropping to 18°C on May 6 amid a passing frontal system introducing cooler northerly winds. Current forecasts from Russian meteorological services like World-Weather.ru project around 17°C under partly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, but diverge from warmer ensemble guidance (e.g., ~25°C in some extended outlooks), highlighting model disagreements on high-pressure persistence versus polar air advection. Daily GFS and ECMWF updates through May 6–7 will clarify steering patterns and cloud cover impacts, key differentiators in this volatile early-May climatology where averages hover near 18–19°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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