Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Moscow's May 6 high temperature, with GISMETEO and ECMWF ensembles centering around 24–25°C amid a transient upper-level ridge ushering warm southerly flow from central Asia. Current observations show early May 2026 above-normal temperatures, peaking near 25°C on May 5 per World-Weather.ru, but an approaching shortwave trough risks afternoon cloudiness and thunderstorms, as flagged by AccuWeather (65% precipitation odds), potentially capping peaks at 24°C via reduced insolation. Factors differentiating outcomes include convective timing—earlier clearing favors 25°C—soil moisture from recent rains, and slight model spreads (GFS warmer than ECMWF). New 12Z runs and Vnukovo Airport readings will sharpen guidance before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 6?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 6?
24°C 35%
25°C 28%
23°C 20%
26°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
20%
24°C
35%
25°C
28%
26°C
15%
27°C or higher
4%
24°C 35%
25°C 28%
23°C 20%
26°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
17°C or below
$274 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$923 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$990 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$963 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$498 Vol.
2%
22°C
$592 Vol.
4%
23°C
$339 Vol.
20%
24°C
$420 Vol.
35%
25°C
$355 Vol.
28%
26°C
$620 Vol.
15%
27°C or higher
$755 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Moscow's May 6 high temperature, with GISMETEO and ECMWF ensembles centering around 24–25°C amid a transient upper-level ridge ushering warm southerly flow from central Asia. Current observations show early May 2026 above-normal temperatures, peaking near 25°C on May 5 per World-Weather.ru, but an approaching shortwave trough risks afternoon cloudiness and thunderstorms, as flagged by AccuWeather (65% precipitation odds), potentially capping peaks at 24°C via reduced insolation. Factors differentiating outcomes include convective timing—earlier clearing favors 25°C—soil moisture from recent rains, and slight model spreads (GFS warmer than ECMWF). New 12Z runs and Vnukovo Airport readings will sharpen guidance before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volumen
$6,729Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Moscow's May 6 high temperature, with GISMETEO and ECMWF ensembles centering around 24–25°C amid a transient upper-level ridge ushering warm southerly flow from central Asia. Current observations show early May 2026 above-normal temperatures, peaking near 25°C on May 5 per World-Weather.ru, but an approaching shortwave trough risks afternoon cloudiness and thunderstorms, as flagged by AccuWeather (65% precipitation odds), potentially capping peaks at 24°C via reduced insolation. Factors differentiating outcomes include convective timing—earlier clearing favors 25°C—soil moisture from recent rains, and slight model spreads (GFS warmer than ECMWF). New 12Z runs and Vnukovo Airport readings will sharpen guidance before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,729Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Moscow's May 6 high temperature, with GISMETEO and ECMWF ensembles centering around 24–25°C amid a transient upper-level ridge ushering warm southerly flow from central Asia. Current observations show early May 2026 above-normal temperatures, peaking near 25°C on May 5 per World-Weather.ru, but an approaching shortwave trough risks afternoon cloudiness and thunderstorms, as flagged by AccuWeather (65% precipitation odds), potentially capping peaks at 24°C via reduced insolation. Factors differentiating outcomes include convective timing—earlier clearing favors 25°C—soil moisture from recent rains, and slight model spreads (GFS warmer than ECMWF). New 12Z runs and Vnukovo Airport readings will sharpen guidance before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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