Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS model ensembles project Madrid's highest temperature on May 6 at around 21°C under partly cloudy conditions with light southwest winds at 5-10 km/h, positioning this outcome at 40.5% trader-implied probability ahead of 22°C (27%) and 20°C (23.5%). Recent observations, including a 21.9°C peak on May 3 and 21.4°C on May 4 from Ciudad Universitaria station, align with this consensus, reflecting typical early-May climatology (historical highs averaging 20-22°C) amid a high-pressure ridge limiting intense heating. Ensemble spreads indicate 1-2°C uncertainty due to variable cloud cover and diurnal heating potential; monitor AEMET's afternoon update and Barajas Airport readings for final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 6?
21°C 45%
22°C 30%
20°C 20%
23°C 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
20%
21°C
45%
22°C
30%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
<1%
21°C 45%
22°C 30%
20°C 20%
23°C 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
15°C or below
$451 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$277 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$198 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,360 Vol.
1%
19°C
$790 Vol.
4%
20°C
$769 Vol.
20%
21°C
$497 Vol.
45%
22°C
$420 Vol.
30%
23°C
$253 Vol.
6%
24°C
$598 Vol.
2%
25°C or higher
$443 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS model ensembles project Madrid's highest temperature on May 6 at around 21°C under partly cloudy conditions with light southwest winds at 5-10 km/h, positioning this outcome at 40.5% trader-implied probability ahead of 22°C (27%) and 20°C (23.5%). Recent observations, including a 21.9°C peak on May 3 and 21.4°C on May 4 from Ciudad Universitaria station, align with this consensus, reflecting typical early-May climatology (historical highs averaging 20-22°C) amid a high-pressure ridge limiting intense heating. Ensemble spreads indicate 1-2°C uncertainty due to variable cloud cover and diurnal heating potential; monitor AEMET's afternoon update and Barajas Airport readings for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volumen
$6,056Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS model ensembles project Madrid's highest temperature on May 6 at around 21°C under partly cloudy conditions with light southwest winds at 5-10 km/h, positioning this outcome at 40.5% trader-implied probability ahead of 22°C (27%) and 20°C (23.5%). Recent observations, including a 21.9°C peak on May 3 and 21.4°C on May 4 from Ciudad Universitaria station, align with this consensus, reflecting typical early-May climatology (historical highs averaging 20-22°C) amid a high-pressure ridge limiting intense heating. Ensemble spreads indicate 1-2°C uncertainty due to variable cloud cover and diurnal heating potential; monitor AEMET's afternoon update and Barajas Airport readings for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,056Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS model ensembles project Madrid's highest temperature on May 6 at around 21°C under partly cloudy conditions with light southwest winds at 5-10 km/h, positioning this outcome at 40.5% trader-implied probability ahead of 22°C (27%) and 20°C (23.5%). Recent observations, including a 21.9°C peak on May 3 and 21.4°C on May 4 from Ciudad Universitaria station, align with this consensus, reflecting typical early-May climatology (historical highs averaging 20-22°C) amid a high-pressure ridge limiting intense heating. Ensemble spreads indicate 1-2°C uncertainty due to variable cloud cover and diurnal heating potential; monitor AEMET's afternoon update and Barajas Airport readings for final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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