Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 33°C in Lagos today, reflecting the latest short-range weather model guidance and morning observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport showing air temperatures already nearing 28°C under partly cloudy skies. Early May climatology supports this, with historical highs averaging 31–33°C amid the transition from dry harmattan influences to the onset of the rainy season, where increased humidity and convective clouds cap daytime peaks, as corroborated by NiMet's February 2026 seasonal prediction of a normal-to-longer wet period for southern Nigeria including Lagos. AccuWeather's May outlook aligns, projecting daily highs in the 29–34°C range, though urban heat island effects and sea breezes introduce minor uncertainty. Real-time airport data releases this afternoon will refine the outcome before market resolution.