Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for Ankara's May 5 highest temperature, with 48.5% implied probability for 13°C or higher slightly edging 41.5% for exactly 12°C, driven by split ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models amid a persistent cold snap. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projects a 13°C peak under partly cloudy skies and 56% humidity, but prolonged northerly winds from a lingering upper-level trough—suppressing recent highs to 6–9°C—limit boundary-layer heating and insolation. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover persistence capping peaks at 12°C versus partial clearing enabling 13°C+ via enhanced solar warming at official stations like Esenboğa Airport; real-time observations will resolve as models diverge on these thin margins below May norms of 20°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on May 5?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 5?
13°C or higher 55%
12°C 41%
11°C 5%
10°C 2.0%
$31,063 Vol.
$31,063 Vol.
5 may 2026
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
41%
13°C or higher
55%
13°C or higher 55%
12°C 41%
11°C 5%
10°C 2.0%
$31,063 Vol.
$31,063 Vol.
5 may 2026
6°C
$2,411 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$2,370 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$2,911 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$5,415 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$3,987 Vol.
2%
11°C
$4,075 Vol.
5%
12°C
$2,773 Vol.
41%
13°C or higher
$6,349 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for Ankara's May 5 highest temperature, with 48.5% implied probability for 13°C or higher slightly edging 41.5% for exactly 12°C, driven by split ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models amid a persistent cold snap. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projects a 13°C peak under partly cloudy skies and 56% humidity, but prolonged northerly winds from a lingering upper-level trough—suppressing recent highs to 6–9°C—limit boundary-layer heating and insolation. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover persistence capping peaks at 12°C versus partial clearing enabling 13°C+ via enhanced solar warming at official stations like Esenboğa Airport; real-time observations will resolve as models diverge on these thin margins below May norms of 20°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volumen
$31,063Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for Ankara's May 5 highest temperature, with 48.5% implied probability for 13°C or higher slightly edging 41.5% for exactly 12°C, driven by split ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models amid a persistent cold snap. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projects a 13°C peak under partly cloudy skies and 56% humidity, but prolonged northerly winds from a lingering upper-level trough—suppressing recent highs to 6–9°C—limit boundary-layer heating and insolation. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover persistence capping peaks at 12°C versus partial clearing enabling 13°C+ via enhanced solar warming at official stations like Esenboğa Airport; real-time observations will resolve as models diverge on these thin margins below May norms of 20°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$31,063Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for Ankara's May 5 highest temperature, with 48.5% implied probability for 13°C or higher slightly edging 41.5% for exactly 12°C, driven by split ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models amid a persistent cold snap. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projects a 13°C peak under partly cloudy skies and 56% humidity, but prolonged northerly winds from a lingering upper-level trough—suppressing recent highs to 6–9°C—limit boundary-layer heating and insolation. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover persistence capping peaks at 12°C versus partial clearing enabling 13°C+ via enhanced solar warming at official stations like Esenboğa Airport; real-time observations will resolve as models diverge on these thin margins below May norms of 20°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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