Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on May 6, with 33°C holding a slim 28% implied probability amid fragmented odds around 28–33°C, driven by divergent global model outputs like GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs of 30–33°C (86–91°F). Persistent above-normal warmth forecasted by Nigeria's Meteorological Agency (NiMet)—with 2026 seasonal predictions indicating warmer-than-average temperatures—supports the upper-end outcomes, tempered by the onset of a longer-than-usual rainy season introducing patchy rain, thunderstorms, and cloud cover that could cap peaks via increased convective activity and sea breeze moderation. Historical May averages hover near 31°C, but recent days' 34°C readings highlight volatility; watch NiMet bulletins and model refreshes through May 5 for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Lagos on May 6?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 6?
32°C 30%
31°C 28%
33°C 25%
30°C 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
27°C or below
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
5%
30°C
9%
31°C
28%
32°C
30%
33°C
25%
34°C
5%
35°C
2%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
1%
32°C 30%
31°C 28%
33°C 25%
30°C 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
27°C or below
$1,717 Vol.
2%
28°C
$205 Vol.
3%
29°C
$69 Vol.
5%
30°C
$200 Vol.
9%
31°C
$236 Vol.
28%
32°C
$249 Vol.
30%
33°C
$368 Vol.
25%
34°C
$463 Vol.
5%
35°C
$304 Vol.
2%
36°C
$265 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$4,070 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on May 6, with 33°C holding a slim 28% implied probability amid fragmented odds around 28–33°C, driven by divergent global model outputs like GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs of 30–33°C (86–91°F). Persistent above-normal warmth forecasted by Nigeria's Meteorological Agency (NiMet)—with 2026 seasonal predictions indicating warmer-than-average temperatures—supports the upper-end outcomes, tempered by the onset of a longer-than-usual rainy season introducing patchy rain, thunderstorms, and cloud cover that could cap peaks via increased convective activity and sea breeze moderation. Historical May averages hover near 31°C, but recent days' 34°C readings highlight volatility; watch NiMet bulletins and model refreshes through May 5 for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 1:16 PM ET
Volumen
$8,067Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 1:16 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on May 6, with 33°C holding a slim 28% implied probability amid fragmented odds around 28–33°C, driven by divergent global model outputs like GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs of 30–33°C (86–91°F). Persistent above-normal warmth forecasted by Nigeria's Meteorological Agency (NiMet)—with 2026 seasonal predictions indicating warmer-than-average temperatures—supports the upper-end outcomes, tempered by the onset of a longer-than-usual rainy season introducing patchy rain, thunderstorms, and cloud cover that could cap peaks via increased convective activity and sea breeze moderation. Historical May averages hover near 31°C, but recent days' 34°C readings highlight volatility; watch NiMet bulletins and model refreshes through May 5 for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,067Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 1:16 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on May 6, with 33°C holding a slim 28% implied probability amid fragmented odds around 28–33°C, driven by divergent global model outputs like GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs of 30–33°C (86–91°F). Persistent above-normal warmth forecasted by Nigeria's Meteorological Agency (NiMet)—with 2026 seasonal predictions indicating warmer-than-average temperatures—supports the upper-end outcomes, tempered by the onset of a longer-than-usual rainy season introducing patchy rain, thunderstorms, and cloud cover that could cap peaks via increased convective activity and sea breeze moderation. Historical May averages hover near 31°C, but recent days' 34°C readings highlight volatility; watch NiMet bulletins and model refreshes through May 5 for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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