Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 16°C (51.5% implied probability) in Istanbul today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs converging on peaks of 15–17°C amid persistent cool northerly airflow and extensive low-level cloud cover limiting solar insolation. This unseasonably chilly pattern—well below May climatological averages of 20–22°C—stems from recent deadly storms across Türkiye, including reports of unseasonal snow farther inland, which have locked in gusty northwest winds and overcast skies per Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance. Morning observations show temperatures hovering near 12°C, with limited diurnal warming expected; monitor MGM's afternoon updates and airport station data for resolution as short-range uncertainty persists in cloud persistence and boundary layer mixing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 5?
16°C 47%
15°C 28%
17°C 24.9%
14°C 2.0%
$26,206 Vol.
$26,206 Vol.
5 may 2026
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
28%
16°C
47%
17°C
25%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 47%
15°C 28%
17°C 24.9%
14°C 2.0%
$26,206 Vol.
$26,206 Vol.
5 may 2026
12°C
$3,903 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$4,389 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,445 Vol.
2%
15°C
$1,827 Vol.
28%
16°C
$2,358 Vol.
47%
17°C
$2,118 Vol.
25%
18°C
$2,253 Vol.
2%
19°C
$1,546 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$1,040 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 16°C (51.5% implied probability) in Istanbul today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs converging on peaks of 15–17°C amid persistent cool northerly airflow and extensive low-level cloud cover limiting solar insolation. This unseasonably chilly pattern—well below May climatological averages of 20–22°C—stems from recent deadly storms across Türkiye, including reports of unseasonal snow farther inland, which have locked in gusty northwest winds and overcast skies per Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance. Morning observations show temperatures hovering near 12°C, with limited diurnal warming expected; monitor MGM's afternoon updates and airport station data for resolution as short-range uncertainty persists in cloud persistence and boundary layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$26,206Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 16°C (51.5% implied probability) in Istanbul today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs converging on peaks of 15–17°C amid persistent cool northerly airflow and extensive low-level cloud cover limiting solar insolation. This unseasonably chilly pattern—well below May climatological averages of 20–22°C—stems from recent deadly storms across Türkiye, including reports of unseasonal snow farther inland, which have locked in gusty northwest winds and overcast skies per Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance. Morning observations show temperatures hovering near 12°C, with limited diurnal warming expected; monitor MGM's afternoon updates and airport station data for resolution as short-range uncertainty persists in cloud persistence and boundary layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$26,206Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 16°C (51.5% implied probability) in Istanbul today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs converging on peaks of 15–17°C amid persistent cool northerly airflow and extensive low-level cloud cover limiting solar insolation. This unseasonably chilly pattern—well below May climatological averages of 20–22°C—stems from recent deadly storms across Türkiye, including reports of unseasonal snow farther inland, which have locked in gusty northwest winds and overcast skies per Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance. Morning observations show temperatures hovering near 12°C, with limited diurnal warming expected; monitor MGM's afternoon updates and airport station data for resolution as short-range uncertainty persists in cloud persistence and boundary layer mixing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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