Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to 19°C as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 6 at Istanbul Airport (per NOAA records), with nearby outcomes at 16–20°C capturing over 95% of volume, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs showing peak daytime highs in the upper teens amid lingering effects of a multi-day cold snap. Recent developments include yesterday's (May 3) observed high of just 12°C—well below the early May climatological average of 18°C—and northerly winds channeling cool Black Sea air over the Marmara region, with scattered showers suppressing stronger warming. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts align with this mild recovery under partly cloudy skies, though new 00z model updates and May 5 observations could shift probabilities as short-range uncertainty narrows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 6?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 6?
18°C 36%
19°C 33%
20°C 14%
17°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
13%
18°C
36%
19°C
33%
20°C
14%
21°C or higher
3%
18°C 36%
19°C 33%
20°C 14%
17°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
11°C or below
$253 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$216 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$397 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$706 Vol.
1%
15°C
$1,521 Vol.
2%
16°C
$1,089 Vol.
3%
17°C
$477 Vol.
13%
18°C
$241 Vol.
36%
19°C
$381 Vol.
33%
20°C
$330 Vol.
14%
21°C or higher
$883 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to 19°C as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 6 at Istanbul Airport (per NOAA records), with nearby outcomes at 16–20°C capturing over 95% of volume, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs showing peak daytime highs in the upper teens amid lingering effects of a multi-day cold snap. Recent developments include yesterday's (May 3) observed high of just 12°C—well below the early May climatological average of 18°C—and northerly winds channeling cool Black Sea air over the Marmara region, with scattered showers suppressing stronger warming. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts align with this mild recovery under partly cloudy skies, though new 00z model updates and May 5 observations could shift probabilities as short-range uncertainty narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
Volumen
$6,489Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to 19°C as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 6 at Istanbul Airport (per NOAA records), with nearby outcomes at 16–20°C capturing over 95% of volume, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs showing peak daytime highs in the upper teens amid lingering effects of a multi-day cold snap. Recent developments include yesterday's (May 3) observed high of just 12°C—well below the early May climatological average of 18°C—and northerly winds channeling cool Black Sea air over the Marmara region, with scattered showers suppressing stronger warming. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts align with this mild recovery under partly cloudy skies, though new 00z model updates and May 5 observations could shift probabilities as short-range uncertainty narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,489Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to 19°C as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 6 at Istanbul Airport (per NOAA records), with nearby outcomes at 16–20°C capturing over 95% of volume, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs showing peak daytime highs in the upper teens amid lingering effects of a multi-day cold snap. Recent developments include yesterday's (May 3) observed high of just 12°C—well below the early May climatological average of 18°C—and northerly winds channeling cool Black Sea air over the Marmara region, with scattered showers suppressing stronger warming. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts align with this mild recovery under partly cloudy skies, though new 00z model updates and May 5 observations could shift probabilities as short-range uncertainty narrows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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