The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Chicago points to a high temperature in the mid-50s°F on May 6 under mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers possible, anchoring trader consensus at 56-57°F (34%) and nearby bins amid high uncertainty reflected in the broad distribution. This below-normal outlook—versus the May 6 climatological average of 67°F—stems from a lingering upper-level trough ushering cool air advection over the Great Lakes region, with light winds and persistent cloud cover limiting boundary layer heating. Key variables tipping outcomes include cloud deck thickness suppressing insolation (favoring 52-55°F), potential afternoon clearing or shear-induced mixing (pushing toward 58-61°F), and shower timing; GFS and ECMWF ensembles show modest spread around 54-58°F. New model runs overnight and morning soundings will sharpen resolution ahead of this short-fuse market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on May 6?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 6?
56-57°F 38%
54-55°F 24%
58-59°F 21.1%
52-53°F 4%
NUEVO
$13,747 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,747 Vol.
6 may 2026
47°F or below
1%
48-49°F
1%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
4%
54-55°F
24%
56-57°F
38%
58-59°F
21%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
1%
66°F or higher
1%
56-57°F 38%
54-55°F 24%
58-59°F 21.1%
52-53°F 4%
NUEVO
$13,747 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,747 Vol.
6 may 2026
47°F or below
$6,379 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$922 Vol.
1%
50-51°F
$1,302 Vol.
2%
52-53°F
$632 Vol.
4%
54-55°F
$540 Vol.
24%
56-57°F
$842 Vol.
38%
58-59°F
$397 Vol.
21%
60-61°F
$786 Vol.
4%
62-63°F
$1,073 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$418 Vol.
1%
66°F or higher
$464 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Chicago points to a high temperature in the mid-50s°F on May 6 under mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers possible, anchoring trader consensus at 56-57°F (34%) and nearby bins amid high uncertainty reflected in the broad distribution. This below-normal outlook—versus the May 6 climatological average of 67°F—stems from a lingering upper-level trough ushering cool air advection over the Great Lakes region, with light winds and persistent cloud cover limiting boundary layer heating. Key variables tipping outcomes include cloud deck thickness suppressing insolation (favoring 52-55°F), potential afternoon clearing or shear-induced mixing (pushing toward 58-61°F), and shower timing; GFS and ECMWF ensembles show modest spread around 54-58°F. New model runs overnight and morning soundings will sharpen resolution ahead of this short-fuse market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 1:16 PM ET
Volumen
$13,747Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 1:16 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Chicago points to a high temperature in the mid-50s°F on May 6 under mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers possible, anchoring trader consensus at 56-57°F (34%) and nearby bins amid high uncertainty reflected in the broad distribution. This below-normal outlook—versus the May 6 climatological average of 67°F—stems from a lingering upper-level trough ushering cool air advection over the Great Lakes region, with light winds and persistent cloud cover limiting boundary layer heating. Key variables tipping outcomes include cloud deck thickness suppressing insolation (favoring 52-55°F), potential afternoon clearing or shear-induced mixing (pushing toward 58-61°F), and shower timing; GFS and ECMWF ensembles show modest spread around 54-58°F. New model runs overnight and morning soundings will sharpen resolution ahead of this short-fuse market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$13,747Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 1:16 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Chicago points to a high temperature in the mid-50s°F on May 6 under mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers possible, anchoring trader consensus at 56-57°F (34%) and nearby bins amid high uncertainty reflected in the broad distribution. This below-normal outlook—versus the May 6 climatological average of 67°F—stems from a lingering upper-level trough ushering cool air advection over the Great Lakes region, with light winds and persistent cloud cover limiting boundary layer heating. Key variables tipping outcomes include cloud deck thickness suppressing insolation (favoring 52-55°F), potential afternoon clearing or shear-induced mixing (pushing toward 58-61°F), and shower timing; GFS and ECMWF ensembles show modest spread around 54-58°F. New model runs overnight and morning soundings will sharpen resolution ahead of this short-fuse market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes