Trader consensus on Polymarket splits 50/50 between a sub-41°F low and 60°F or higher minimum in New York City on May 8, highlighting sharp uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range forecasts amid early May's high variability. Long-range guidance from NOAA-aligned models and sources like AccuWeather clusters around 48-50°F lows, matching the historical May 8 average of 52°F at Central Park (with records from 36°F in 2020 to 70°F), but divergent ensemble spreads reflect risks from a lingering cool spring pattern versus potential warm advection. Key differentiators include radiative cooling under clear skies and calm winds (<5 mph) for cold outcomes, versus cloud cover and southerly breezes for warmth; updated GFS/ECMWF runs due in the next 24 hours will likely refine probabilities before resolution via official observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Nueva York el 8 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Nueva York el 8 de mayo?
48-49°F 24%
50-51°F 23%
52-53°F 18%
54-55°F 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 may 2026
41°F o menos
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
1%
46-47°F
1%
48-49°F
24%
50-51°F
23%
52-53°F
18%
54-55°F
16%
56-57°F
14%
58-59°F
11%
60°F o más
1%
48-49°F 24%
50-51°F 23%
52-53°F 18%
54-55°F 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 may 2026
41°F o menos
$28 Vol.
1%
42-43°F
$28 Vol.
1%
44-45°F
$28 Vol.
1%
46-47°F
$28 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$83 Vol.
24%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
23%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
18%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
16%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
14%
58-59°F
$28 Vol.
11%
60°F o más
$738 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits 50/50 between a sub-41°F low and 60°F or higher minimum in New York City on May 8, highlighting sharp uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range forecasts amid early May's high variability. Long-range guidance from NOAA-aligned models and sources like AccuWeather clusters around 48-50°F lows, matching the historical May 8 average of 52°F at Central Park (with records from 36°F in 2020 to 70°F), but divergent ensemble spreads reflect risks from a lingering cool spring pattern versus potential warm advection. Key differentiators include radiative cooling under clear skies and calm winds (<5 mph) for cold outcomes, versus cloud cover and southerly breezes for warmth; updated GFS/ECMWF runs due in the next 24 hours will likely refine probabilities before resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$257Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits 50/50 between a sub-41°F low and 60°F or higher minimum in New York City on May 8, highlighting sharp uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range forecasts amid early May's high variability. Long-range guidance from NOAA-aligned models and sources like AccuWeather clusters around 48-50°F lows, matching the historical May 8 average of 52°F at Central Park (with records from 36°F in 2020 to 70°F), but divergent ensemble spreads reflect risks from a lingering cool spring pattern versus potential warm advection. Key differentiators include radiative cooling under clear skies and calm winds (<5 mph) for cold outcomes, versus cloud cover and southerly breezes for warmth; updated GFS/ECMWF runs due in the next 24 hours will likely refine probabilities before resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$257Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket splits 50/50 between a sub-41°F low and 60°F or higher minimum in New York City on May 8, highlighting sharp uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range forecasts amid early May's high variability. Long-range guidance from NOAA-aligned models and sources like AccuWeather clusters around 48-50°F lows, matching the historical May 8 average of 52°F at Central Park (with records from 36°F in 2020 to 70°F), but divergent ensemble spreads reflect risks from a lingering cool spring pattern versus potential warm advection. Key differentiators include radiative cooling under clear skies and calm winds (<5 mph) for cold outcomes, versus cloud cover and southerly breezes for warmth; updated GFS/ECMWF runs due in the next 24 hours will likely refine probabilities before resolution via official observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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