Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models diverging on New York City's lowest temperature at Central Park on May 6, projecting lows from the upper 40s to mid-60s°F across members. This spread stems from disagreement on evening cloud cover and light winds, where clear skies could enable radiative cooling toward 51°F or below (25% implied probability), while persistent overcast or urban heat island effects might sustain 60-65°F readings. Recent cool spells, with lows near 46-52°F over the past 48 hours amid a lingering spring front, contrast historical early-May averages around 52°F. Watch NWS New York 12Z updates Tuesday for potential sharpening ahead of observed minimum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Nueva York el 6 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Nueva York el 6 de mayo?
60-61°F 13%
58-59°F 12%
56-57°F 9%
62-63°F 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
51°F o menos
2%
52-53°F
4%
54-55°F
8%
56-57°F
9%
58-59°F
12%
60-61°F
13%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70°F o más
<1%
60-61°F 13%
58-59°F 12%
56-57°F 9%
62-63°F 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
51°F o menos
$345 Vol.
2%
52-53°F
$73 Vol.
4%
54-55°F
$15 Vol.
8%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
9%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
12%
60-61°F
$15 Vol.
13%
62-63°F
$15 Vol.
9%
64-65°F
$15 Vol.
7%
66-67°F
$424 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$424 Vol.
1%
70°F o más
$47 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models diverging on New York City's lowest temperature at Central Park on May 6, projecting lows from the upper 40s to mid-60s°F across members. This spread stems from disagreement on evening cloud cover and light winds, where clear skies could enable radiative cooling toward 51°F or below (25% implied probability), while persistent overcast or urban heat island effects might sustain 60-65°F readings. Recent cool spells, with lows near 46-52°F over the past 48 hours amid a lingering spring front, contrast historical early-May averages around 52°F. Watch NWS New York 12Z updates Tuesday for potential sharpening ahead of observed minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$1,349Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models diverging on New York City's lowest temperature at Central Park on May 6, projecting lows from the upper 40s to mid-60s°F across members. This spread stems from disagreement on evening cloud cover and light winds, where clear skies could enable radiative cooling toward 51°F or below (25% implied probability), while persistent overcast or urban heat island effects might sustain 60-65°F readings. Recent cool spells, with lows near 46-52°F over the past 48 hours amid a lingering spring front, contrast historical early-May averages around 52°F. Watch NWS New York 12Z updates Tuesday for potential sharpening ahead of observed minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,349Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models diverging on New York City's lowest temperature at Central Park on May 6, projecting lows from the upper 40s to mid-60s°F across members. This spread stems from disagreement on evening cloud cover and light winds, where clear skies could enable radiative cooling toward 51°F or below (25% implied probability), while persistent overcast or urban heat island effects might sustain 60-65°F readings. Recent cool spells, with lows near 46-52°F over the past 48 hours amid a lingering spring front, contrast historical early-May averages around 52°F. Watch NWS New York 12Z updates Tuesday for potential sharpening ahead of observed minimum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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