Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 24°C or higher (26%) and exactly 23°C (22%), driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting Istanbul highs near 23°C on May 8 amid a developing upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and warmer southerly flow. Recent cooler conditions—highs around 14–20°C on May 4–6 due to northerly winds and cloud cover—have given way to clearer skies, boosting potential for 1–2°C above climo averages of 19–21°C for early May. Key differentiators include sea-breeze moderation from the Marmara Sea, variable cloudiness, and model spread on peak heating; watch 00Z/12Z updates from NOAA and ECMWF for refinements before resolution via official Istanbul station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 8?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 8?
24°C or higher 85%
23°C 10%
21°C 4.5%
22°C 3.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 may 2026
14°C o menos
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
4%
22°C
3%
23°C
10%
24°C or higher
85%
24°C or higher 85%
23°C 10%
21°C 4.5%
22°C 3.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 may 2026
14°C o menos
$266 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$251 Vol.
1%
16°C
$233 Vol.
1%
17°C
$319 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$411 Vol.
1%
19°C
$94 Vol.
1%
20°C
$101 Vol.
2%
21°C
$78 Vol.
4%
22°C
$96 Vol.
3%
23°C
$228 Vol.
10%
24°C or higher
$196 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 24°C or higher (26%) and exactly 23°C (22%), driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting Istanbul highs near 23°C on May 8 amid a developing upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and warmer southerly flow. Recent cooler conditions—highs around 14–20°C on May 4–6 due to northerly winds and cloud cover—have given way to clearer skies, boosting potential for 1–2°C above climo averages of 19–21°C for early May. Key differentiators include sea-breeze moderation from the Marmara Sea, variable cloudiness, and model spread on peak heating; watch 00Z/12Z updates from NOAA and ECMWF for refinements before resolution via official Istanbul station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 6, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volumen
$2,273Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 6, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 24°C or higher (26%) and exactly 23°C (22%), driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting Istanbul highs near 23°C on May 8 amid a developing upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and warmer southerly flow. Recent cooler conditions—highs around 14–20°C on May 4–6 due to northerly winds and cloud cover—have given way to clearer skies, boosting potential for 1–2°C above climo averages of 19–21°C for early May. Key differentiators include sea-breeze moderation from the Marmara Sea, variable cloudiness, and model spread on peak heating; watch 00Z/12Z updates from NOAA and ECMWF for refinements before resolution via official Istanbul station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,273Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 6, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 24°C or higher (26%) and exactly 23°C (22%), driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting Istanbul highs near 23°C on May 8 amid a developing upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and warmer southerly flow. Recent cooler conditions—highs around 14–20°C on May 4–6 due to northerly winds and cloud cover—have given way to clearer skies, boosting potential for 1–2°C above climo averages of 19–21°C for early May. Key differentiators include sea-breeze moderation from the Marmara Sea, variable cloudiness, and model spread on peak heating; watch 00Z/12Z updates from NOAA and ECMWF for refinements before resolution via official Istanbul station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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