Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for a 17°C high in Wellington on May 6, edging out 18°C at 27.5% and 16°C at 18%, reflecting tight uncertainty in MetService's latest forecast of a 16°C peak at Kelburn under strengthening northerlies advecting warmer air from the north. Recent settled conditions and northerly flow have delivered above-climatological highs—averaging 14–15°C in May—with yesterday's 15.9°C observation underscoring potential for model upside, as ensembles like NZLAM show a 16–18°C spread influenced by cloud variability and evening shower timing. Watch MetService's next 9am update and May 5 afternoon observations for shifts in peak heating potential.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wellington on May 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 6?
17°C 57%
16°C 22%
18°C 15%
19°C 6%
NUEVO
$30,419 Vol.
NUEVO
$30,419 Vol.
6 may 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
22%
17°C
57%
18°C
15%
19°C
6%
20°C or higher
1%
17°C 57%
16°C 22%
18°C 15%
19°C 6%
NUEVO
$30,419 Vol.
NUEVO
$30,419 Vol.
6 may 2026
10°C or below
$7,507 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$6,643 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$5,843 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,359 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$955 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,593 Vol.
2%
16°C
$2,621 Vol.
22%
17°C
$911 Vol.
57%
18°C
$966 Vol.
15%
19°C
$1,452 Vol.
6%
20°C or higher
$569 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for a 17°C high in Wellington on May 6, edging out 18°C at 27.5% and 16°C at 18%, reflecting tight uncertainty in MetService's latest forecast of a 16°C peak at Kelburn under strengthening northerlies advecting warmer air from the north. Recent settled conditions and northerly flow have delivered above-climatological highs—averaging 14–15°C in May—with yesterday's 15.9°C observation underscoring potential for model upside, as ensembles like NZLAM show a 16–18°C spread influenced by cloud variability and evening shower timing. Watch MetService's next 9am update and May 5 afternoon observations for shifts in peak heating potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ET
Volumen
$30,419Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for a 17°C high in Wellington on May 6, edging out 18°C at 27.5% and 16°C at 18%, reflecting tight uncertainty in MetService's latest forecast of a 16°C peak at Kelburn under strengthening northerlies advecting warmer air from the north. Recent settled conditions and northerly flow have delivered above-climatological highs—averaging 14–15°C in May—with yesterday's 15.9°C observation underscoring potential for model upside, as ensembles like NZLAM show a 16–18°C spread influenced by cloud variability and evening shower timing. Watch MetService's next 9am update and May 5 afternoon observations for shifts in peak heating potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30,419Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for a 17°C high in Wellington on May 6, edging out 18°C at 27.5% and 16°C at 18%, reflecting tight uncertainty in MetService's latest forecast of a 16°C peak at Kelburn under strengthening northerlies advecting warmer air from the north. Recent settled conditions and northerly flow have delivered above-climatological highs—averaging 14–15°C in May—with yesterday's 15.9°C observation underscoring potential for model upside, as ensembles like NZLAM show a 16–18°C spread influenced by cloud variability and evening shower timing. Watch MetService's next 9am update and May 5 afternoon observations for shifts in peak heating potential.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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