Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Houston's May 8 high temperature, with models converging on upper 70s to low 80s amid mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers or thunderstorms from persistent southerly flow and Gulf moisture. The 80-81°F outcome leads slightly at 22% implied probability due to recent overcast conditions suppressing recent highs around 78°F, reducing solar heating despite a climatological normal of 85°F at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Key differentiators include cloud cover duration—prolonged overcast favors 74-79°F bins, while partial clearing boosts 82-83°F chances—and shower timing, with southeast winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph adding variability. Updated model runs expected Thursday afternoon could refine this, as historical May 8 variability spans 69-96°F extremes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on May 8?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 8?
78-79°F 32%
80-81°F 27%
76-77°F 22%
74-75°F 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 may 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
11%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
32%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
1%
78-79°F 32%
80-81°F 27%
76-77°F 22%
74-75°F 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 may 2026
71°F or below
$263 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$18 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$283 Vol.
11%
76-77°F
$88 Vol.
22%
78-79°F
$127 Vol.
32%
80-81°F
$23 Vol.
27%
82-83°F
$90 Vol.
10%
84-85°F
$86 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$44 Vol.
3%
88-89°F
$279 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$35 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Houston's May 8 high temperature, with models converging on upper 70s to low 80s amid mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers or thunderstorms from persistent southerly flow and Gulf moisture. The 80-81°F outcome leads slightly at 22% implied probability due to recent overcast conditions suppressing recent highs around 78°F, reducing solar heating despite a climatological normal of 85°F at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Key differentiators include cloud cover duration—prolonged overcast favors 74-79°F bins, while partial clearing boosts 82-83°F chances—and shower timing, with southeast winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph adding variability. Updated model runs expected Thursday afternoon could refine this, as historical May 8 variability spans 69-96°F extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 6, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volumen
$1,335Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 6, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Houston's May 8 high temperature, with models converging on upper 70s to low 80s amid mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers or thunderstorms from persistent southerly flow and Gulf moisture. The 80-81°F outcome leads slightly at 22% implied probability due to recent overcast conditions suppressing recent highs around 78°F, reducing solar heating despite a climatological normal of 85°F at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Key differentiators include cloud cover duration—prolonged overcast favors 74-79°F bins, while partial clearing boosts 82-83°F chances—and shower timing, with southeast winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph adding variability. Updated model runs expected Thursday afternoon could refine this, as historical May 8 variability spans 69-96°F extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,335Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 6, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Houston's May 8 high temperature, with models converging on upper 70s to low 80s amid mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers or thunderstorms from persistent southerly flow and Gulf moisture. The 80-81°F outcome leads slightly at 22% implied probability due to recent overcast conditions suppressing recent highs around 78°F, reducing solar heating despite a climatological normal of 85°F at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Key differentiators include cloud cover duration—prolonged overcast favors 74-79°F bins, while partial clearing boosts 82-83°F chances—and shower timing, with southeast winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph adding variability. Updated model runs expected Thursday afternoon could refine this, as historical May 8 variability spans 69-96°F extremes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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